Assessing Components of Judgments in an Operational Setting
Aviation weather forecasting provides an excellent opportunity to study judgment and decision making under time pressure. Because the weather information supplied to air traffic controllers often determines traffic patterns, the timeliness of advisories can become critical. Significant weather activity increases demand on forecasters for rapid assimilation of information and rapid judgments. In addition, aviation forecasting represents an operational setting in which the only data available for analysis may be forecasts and outcomes. That is, in this setting, forecasters are working in “real time,” generating forecasts on the basis of dynamic information. In such a setting, it is inappropriate for researchers to intervene in order to introduce some type of experimental control. Yet it is just such situations that are the most representative and important regarding the effects of time pressure on judgment and decision making. Consequently, in such situations, statisticai decomposition of judgment and outcome data may be the best means of gaining insight into characteristics of performance affected by time pressure.
KeywordsTime Pressure Discriminative Ability Task Characteristic Forecast Time High Time Pressure
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