Time Budget Analysis and Risk Management: Estimating the Probabilities of the Event Schedules of American Adults

Abstract

Comprehensive risk management must account both for the exposure and consequences of risks. Time budget analysis focuses on the activities and location of people, which are directly related to potential exposure, and consequences of risk. The analysis of the distribution of daily activities allows risk analysts to adjust exposure likelihoods for the changing population distribution over the course of a 24 hour period. In addition, time budget analysis allows the risk analyst to account for shifts in potential consequences associated with location of people at various times of the day. This paper examines three significant aspects of time budget analysis and risk management. First, the direct exposure rates to ongoing hazards as a function of the amount of time spent at risk (e.g. in an automobile, or airplane, or outdoors in a neighborhood adjacent to an uncontrolled hazardous materials site). Second, the effect on the likelihood of exposure to and severity of consequences for relatively sudden events (e.g. toxic chemical spills, radioactive leaks, other airborne risks transmitted via the plume-exposure pathway, tornadoes, earthquakes and flash floods). Finally, the effect on risk management through effective emergency management is directly related to location and activity of people at various times of the day (e.g. likelihood of warning receipt, probable evacuation flow dynamics, and likelihood of inadvertent adaptive location).

This research was partially supported by The Federal Emergency Management Agency (Cooperative Agreement No. EMW-K-1024). This report has not been reviewed by FEMA and in no way reflects the view and policies of the Agency. The authors accept full responsibility for the contents herein and gratefully acknowledge the support, comments and criticisms offered by colleagues at the University of Pittsburgh and the Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis.