Development and Application of Risk Analysis in Duke Power

Abstract

Duke Power Company managers have available to them today a set of analytical tools to provide risk evaluations for input into the decision-making process. This paper describes the development of risk analysis techniques within Duke Power Company and the growing application of these techniques in our work.

Duke’s initial involvement with risk analysis techniques began in 1973 with the formation of a small probabilistic reliability group in the Design Engineering Department. The Reactor Safety Study (WASH 1400) and the Three Mile Island accident accelerated interest in larger scale applications for our nuclear plants. As a result, the Oconee Probabilistic Risk Assessment, co-sponsored by Duke and the Nuclear Safety Analysis Center, was undertaken. Shortly thereafter, dedicated groups were established to develop and apply risk analyses in the design and operation of our nuclear stations. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for the McGuire Nuclear Station was completed in 1984, and a PRA on the Catawba Nuclear Station is in progress.

Duke’s PRA studies have been used to evaluate nuclear station operational, design, and regulatory issues. Similar techniques are also being applied beyond the nuclear area into such varied problems as availability improvement, spare parts procurement, plant life extension studies, and computer system contingency planning. Other areas of potential application of risk analysis techniques are under study.

Duke’s activities in risk analysis have not been developed as a centralized risk management program. Senior management’s approach has been to monitor the application of risk analysis and to encourage managers at all levels to use the results as inputs in decision-making.