A Theory of Epidemics
The spread of a contagious disease involves interactions of two populations: the susceptibles and the infectives. In some diseases these two populations are from different species. For example, malaria is not passed directly between animals but by the anopheline mosquitoes, and schistosomiasis is passed from animal to animal only through contact with water in which live snails that can incubate the disease-causing helminths. In other diseases, the infection can be passed directly from infectives to susceptibles: Viral diseases like chickenpox, measles, and influenza, and bacterial diseases like tuberculosis can pass through a population much like a flame through fuel. In this chapter, we consider diseases that propagate by direct contact.
KeywordsSampling Interval Sample Path Final Size Markov Chain Model Susceptible Population
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