How Many Tanks?
During World War ll, Allied intelligence reports on German production of tanks and other war materials varied widely and were somewhat contradictory. Statisticians set to work on improving the estimates. In 1943 the developed a method that used the information contained in the serial number stamped on captured equipment. One particularly successful venture was the estimation of the number of Make V tanks, whose serial numbers, they discovered, were consevutive.That is, the tanks were numbered in a manner equivalent to 1,2,3,..., N.Capturing a tank was like randomly drawing a ran dom integer from this sequence.
KeywordsSerial Number Unknown Quantity Good Estimator Good Esti German Production
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