Using Clinical Prediction Rules in Your Practice

  • Mark H. Ebell


How likely is a disease? What is a patient’s prognosis? Can we expect surgery to be successful? Taking care of patients involves many predictions and estimates. Answering these questions accurately is critical for the physician who wants to provide high quality, cost-effective care for his or her patients. Traditionally, we have based these estimates and predictions on our judgment and clinical experience.


Likelihood Ratio Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Serum Ferritin Misclassification Rate Pretest Probability 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    Sox HC, Blatt MA, Higgins MC, Marton KI. Medical Decision Making. Butterworth-Heinemann, Boston, 1988Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Mark DB, Shaw L, Harreil FE, et al. Prognostic value of a treadmill exercise score in outpatients with suspected coronary artery disease. N Engl J Med 1991; 325: 849–853PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Slawson DS, Shaughnessy AS. Becoming an information master: A guidebook to the medical information jungle. J Fam Pract 1994; 39: 593–594.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Young MJ, McMahon LF, Stross JK. Prediction rules for patients with suspected myocardial infarction. Arch Intern Med 1987; 147: 1219–1222PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Ebell MH, Kruse JA, Smith MA, Novak J, Wilcox J. Multivariate prediction: failure of three decision rules to predict the outcome of in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Med Decis Making 1997; 17: 171–177PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Poses RM, Cebul RD, Collins M, Fager SS. The importance of disease prevalence in transporting clinical prediction rules. Ann Intern Med 1986; 105: 586–591PubMedGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 1982; 143: 29–36.PubMedGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mark H. Ebell
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Family MedicineMichigan State UniversityEast LansingUSA

Personalised recommendations