Sorting Out the Effects of Switzerland’s Accession to the EU: A Simulation Analysis

  • Jean-Marie Grether
  • Tobias Müller


A long and still active debate surrounds the desirability for Switzerland to join the EU. Should the application be reactivated? Should it be for full or “partial” membership? If the controversies surrounding the debate have political, y and economic roots, it is fair to say that much of the debate is concerned about the economic effects. Will any increased efficiency gains be sufficient to compensate for the transfer that will have to accompany membership? What will be the effects of increased migration or the possible adoption of the euro? It is clear that with all the likely effects coming into play it is necessary to sort out their respective importance. A natural way to do so is simulation analysis, which is specifically designed to this purpose. This is what we set out to do in this paper.


Interest Rate European Union Real Interest Rate Monetary Union Common Agricultural Policy 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Allen, C., M. Gasiorek and A. Smith (1997), Trade Creation and Trade Diversion, Single Market Review, subseries IV, volume 3, European Communities.Google Scholar
  2. Baldwin, R.E. (1992), Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade, Journal of Political Economy, 100, p.162–174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Baldwin, R.E. and A.J. Venables (1995), Regional Economic Integration, in: Grossman, G. and K. Rogoff (eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Volume III, Amsterdam: Elsevier.Google Scholar
  4. Baldwin, R. E., R. Forslid and J. Haaland (1995), Investment Creation and Investment Diversion: Simulation Analysis of the Single Market Programme, NBER Working Paper 5364.Google Scholar
  5. Bärlocher, J., B. Schips and P. Stalder (1999), Makroökonomische Auswirkungen eines EU-Beitrittes der Schweiz, série Contributions à la politique économique, Office fédéral du développement économique et de l’emploi, Berne.Google Scholar
  6. Blanchard, O. J. (1985), Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons, Journal of Political Economy, 93, p. 223–247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Brown, D. K. (1987), Tariffs, the Terms of Trade and National Product Differentiation, Journal of Policy Modeling, 3, p. 503–526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. EC Commission (1990), One Market, one Money, European Economy, vol. 44.Google Scholar
  9. Feldstein, M. (1994), Tax Policy and International Capital Flows, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130, p. 675–697.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Grether, J.-M. and T. Müller (1999a), Long-Run Effects of the Common Agricultural Policy of Switzerland: A Simulation Analysis, mimeo, LEA, University of Geneva.Google Scholar
  11. Grether, J.-M. and T. Müller (1999b), Modeling Switzerland’s Accession to the EU: a Decomposition of the Economic Costs and Benefits, mimeo, LEA, University of Geneva.Google Scholar
  12. Hamermesh, D. S. (1993), Labor Demand. Princeton University Press, Princeton.Google Scholar
  13. Harrison, G., T. Rutherford and D. Tarr (1994), Product Standards, Imperfect Competition and Completion of the Market in the European Union, PR Working Paper 1293, The World Bank, Washington D.C.Google Scholar
  14. Höfert, A. (1998), Wie gross ist die Kapitalmobilität zwischen der Schweiz und dem Ausland ? Ergebnisse einer intertemporalen Betrachtung der Schweizer Ertragsbilanz, Konjunktur, 9/98, Konjunkturforschungsstelle ETH Zürich.Google Scholar
  15. Keuschnigg, C. and W. Kohler (1997), Dynamics of Trade Liberalization, in: Francois, J. F. and K. A. Reinert (eds.), Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  16. Laxton, D., P. Isard, H. Faruqee, E. Prasad and B. Turtelboom (1998), MULTIMOD Mark III : The Core and Steady-State Models, IMF Occasional Paper 164.Google Scholar
  17. McDougall, R.A., A. Elbehri, and T.P. Truong (1998), Global Trade Assistance and Protection: The GTAP 4 Data Base, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.Google Scholar
  18. De Melo, J. and D. Tarr (1992), A General Equilibrium Analysis of US Foreign Trade Policy, Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  19. Mercenier, J. and N. Schmitt (1996), On Sunk Costs and Trade Liberalization in Applied General Equilibrium, International Economic Review, 37, p. 553–572.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Müller, A. and R. van Nieuwkoop (1999), EU-Integration der Schweiz: wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen, BWA-Schriftenreihe, Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik, Bern.Google Scholar
  21. Müller, T. and J.-M. Grether (1999), Effets à long terme de l’intégration de la Suisse à l’Europe, BWASchriftenreihe, Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik, Bern.Google Scholar
  22. OECD (1998), Politiques agricoles des pays de l’OCDE: Mesure du soutien et informations de base, OCDE, Paris.Google Scholar
  23. Single Market Review (1998), Aggregate Results of the Single Market Program, Subseries VI, Vol. 5, European Communities.Google Scholar
  24. Smith, A. and A.J. Venables (1988), Completing the Internal Market in the European Community: Some Industry Simulations, European Economic Review, 32, p. 1501–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Straubhaar, T. (1999), Integration und Arbeitsmarkt: Auswirkungen einer Annäherung der Schweiz an die Europäische Union, BWA-Schriftenreihe, Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik, Bern.Google Scholar
  26. Zweifel P. (ed.) (1993), Services in Switzerland: Structure, Performance and Implications of European Economic Integration, Springer Verlag, Berlin.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jean-Marie Grether
  • Tobias Müller

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations