OECD Experience with Projecting Age-Related Expenditure

  • Howard Oxley


This note briefly reviews the experience of the OECD in making long-term projections of age-related expenditure and draws some lessons and caveats from this experience. Some of the issues regarding age-related spending were discussed in the early 1970s (OECD, 1975, 1976 and 1977). However, the longer-term issues of ageing only began to receive active attention around the middle of the 1980s. By that time, it had become apparent that the trend decline in fertility among most OECD countries could not be easily reversed and that the associated impact on population growth and structure would have implications for future patterns and levels of spending.2 This, combined with the widespread increase in general government expenditure during the latter half of the 1980s and the large government deficits and debt as many OECD economies moved into recession in the 1990s, led to a growing concern about the implication of population ageing for longer-term fiscal sustainability.


Contribution Rate Pension System Population Projection Dependency Ratio Pension Benefit 
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© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2001

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  • Howard Oxley

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