Prologue: “Let Others Thrash it out!” A Brief History

Abstract

The Arabic doctor Avicenna in the eleventh century provided seven rules for medical experimentation involving human subjects [1]. Among these precepts was a recommendation for the use of control groups, the advice of repeating results (replication), and a warning against the use of variables that would confuse Avidenna’s decision about what variable is actually causing the effect of interest. These observations represented a great intellectual step forward; however, this step was taken in relative isolation. An additional six hundred years had to pass before the line of reasoning that led to p values eventually emerged. In order to understand the initial twists and turns of the development of this curious discipline, we need to take a quick diversion to life in Europe five hundred years ago.