Three Conceptions of Quantified Societal Risk

  • Pieter Jan M. Stallen
  • Rob Geerts
  • Han K. Vrijling
Part of the Technology, Risk, and Society book series (RISKGOSO, volume 12)


This article will discuss quantitative approaches to represent and understand the possibility of major hazards that arise from sudden disturbances of powerful material or energy flows in man-made systems such as a chemical process facility, a railway or a river-dike infrastructure. Our primary concern will be with hazards that may lead to the simultaneous death of a number of people (multiple fatalities).


Disaster Risk Major Hazard Societal Risk Collective Risk Hazardous Source 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. BUWAL (1991) Handbuch I zur Störfallverordnung StFV: Richtlinien für Betriebe mit Stoffen, Erzeugnisse oder Sonderabfällen, Bern: Bundesambt für Umwelt, Wald and Landschaft.Google Scholar
  2. BUWAL (1992) Handbuch III zur Störfallverordnung StFV: Richtlinien für Verkehrswege, Bern: Bundesambt für Umwelt, Wald and Landschaft.Google Scholar
  3. Carter, D.A. (1995) The scaled risk integral: A simple numerical representation of case societal risk for land use planning in the vinicinity of major accident Hazards, Paper presented at the 8th symposium on “Loss prevention & safety promotion in the process industry”, Antwerp (June 6–9 ).Google Scholar
  4. Erkut, E. & V. Verter (1995) A framework for hazardous materials transport risk assessment, Risk Analysis, 15(5) pp 589–601.Google Scholar
  5. Fernandes-Russell, D. (1988) Societal Risk-estimates from historical data for U.K. and world-wide events,Norwich: School of Environmental sciences (RR No 3, Report to UK-AEA).Google Scholar
  6. Fischhoff, B. et al. (1981) Acceptable risk, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  7. Haastrup, P. (1992) Road accidents with transport of dangerous goods, Ispra: Joint CEC Research Centre (Paper presented at the OECD meeting on ‘Strategies for transporting dangerous goods by road: Safety and environmental protection’, Karlstad-Sweden )Google Scholar
  8. HSE (1989a) Quantified Risk Assessment-Its input into decision making, London: Her Majesty’s Stationary OfficeGoogle Scholar
  9. HSE (1989b) Risk criteria for land use planning in the vicinity of major industrial hazards, London: Her Majesty’s Stationary Office.Google Scholar
  10. HSE (1991) Major hazard aspects of the transport of dangerous substances, London: Her Majesty’s Stationary Office.Google Scholar
  11. Hubert, Ph. et al. (1991) Elicitation of decision makers’ preferences of management of major hazards, Risk Analysis 11 (2) pp. 199–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. IChem (1985) Nomenclature for hazard and risk assessment in the process industries, Rugby/Warwickshire: Institution of Chemical Engineers.Google Scholar
  13. Lagadec, P. (1985) Canvey Island: The dynamics of a major technological risk assessment, in: V.T. Covello et al. Environmental impact assessment, Technology assessment, and Risk analysis, Berlin: Springer Verlag.Google Scholar
  14. Merz, H.A. & H. Bohnenblust (1993) Cost-effectiveness analyses and evaluation of risk reduction measures,Budapest (Paper presented at the 2nd World Congress on safety science, nov.24).Google Scholar
  15. Lopes, L.L. (1987) Between hope and fear: The psychology of risk, in: L. Berkowitz (ed.) Advances in experimental social psychology, New York: Academic, pp 255–292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. OECD (1991) Statistical analysis of disasters, Paris: Organisation for economic cooperation and development.Google Scholar
  17. Pikaar, M.J. & M.A. Seaman (1995) A review of risk control,Den Haag: Ministry VROM (Report SVS 1995/27A)Google Scholar
  18. RAND (1993) Airport growth and safety, A study of external risks of Schiphol airport and possible safety-enhancing measures, Santa Monica, Ca.: RAND Corporation. Rasmussen, N.C. (1981) The application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to energy technologies, Annual review of energy, 6 pp 123–138.Google Scholar
  19. Schneider, T. (1991) Sicherheitsanalyse im transportwesen, Winterthur: Schweizerische vereinigung far atomenergie (Vertiefungskursus).Google Scholar
  20. Smets, H. (1991) Social constraints on tolerable risks near a hazardous installation, p. 591 in: Ph. Hubert & M. Poumadère (eds.) Risk Analysis: Underlying rationale, Paris (Proceedings of the 3rd SRA-Europe conference, dec. 16–18).Google Scholar
  21. Smets, H. (1996) Frequency distribution of the consequences of accidents involving hazardous substances in OECD countries, Etudes et Dossiers, Geneva: Geneva Association (March).Google Scholar
  22. Smith, E.J. (1992) Societal risk around marshalling yards, The Hague: VROM ( Report prepared by Technica, London).Google Scholar
  23. Starr, Ch. (1969) Social benefit versus technological risk, Science, 165, pp 1232–1238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Taylor, J.R. et al. (1989) Quantitative and qualitative risk criteria for risk acceptance, Roskilde: ITSA (A report for Miljostyrelsen )Google Scholar
  25. TK (1988–1989) Tweede Kamer, National Environmental Policy Plan 1990–1994,The Hague: SDU-Publishers (ISSN 0921–7371).Google Scholar
  26. TK (1992–93) Tweede Kamer, 22800 XI nr.62, p.2 (Letter to Parliament about the policy on public safety of railway yards).Google Scholar
  27. Vlek, C.A.J. (1990) Decision making about risk acceptance,The Hague: National Health Council (Report A90/11)Google Scholar
  28. Vlek, C.A.J. & W.A. Wagenaar (1979) Judgement and decision under uncertainty, in: J.A. Michon et al. (eds.) Handbook of Psychonomics, Vol. 2, Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
  29. Vrijling, J.K. et al. (1995) A framework for risk evaluation, Journal of hazardous materials, 43, p. 245–261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Wehr, H. et al. (1995) Risk analysis and safety concept for new long railway tunnels in Austria,Paper presented at the 2nd International Conference “Safety in road and rail tunnels”, Granada (April 3–6).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pieter Jan M. Stallen
  • Rob Geerts
  • Han K. Vrijling

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations