Panel Data and Activity Duration Models: Econometric Alternatives and Applications
The availability of panel data and the continued development of activity-based travel demand models has cast a very promising light on the prospect of significantly improving our understanding of travel demand and our ability to forecast it. A lingering concern, however, relates to the econometric structure of activity-based models given the availability of panel data. This chapter presents a number of econometric alternatives that can be used to model individuals’ activity duration (e.g. time spent shopping, participating in recreational activities, etc.). Using panel data from the Puget Sound Region in Washington State, we estimate a number of econometric models and focus on potential specification errors and predictive capabilities. The primary econometric focus is on estimating survival models of activity duration using the fully-parametric Weibull proportional hazards with Gamma heterogeneity. The estimation concerns deal with the effects of state dependence and heterogeneity and the determination of true state dependence.
KeywordsState Dependence Activity Duration Travel Demand Duration Model Duration Dependence
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Boush, D.M. and Jain, D.C. (1991) Modeling purchase-timing and brand-switching behavior incorporating explanatory variables and unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of Marketing Research, 18, 29–41.Google Scholar
- Cox, D.R. (1972) Regression models and life tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B34, 187–220.Google Scholar
- Heciatan, J. and Bowas, G. (1980) Does unemployment cause future unemployment? Definitions, questions and answers from a continuous time model of heterogeneity and state dependence. Econometrica, 47, 247–283.Google Scholar
- Hensher, D. and Raimond, T. (1997) The timing of change: Discrete and continuous time panels in transportation. Chapter Twelve in this volume.Google Scholar
- Hui, W.T. (1990) Proportional Hazard Weibull Mixtures. Working paper, Department of Economics, Australian National University, Canberra.Google Scholar
- Kalbfleisch, J. and Prentice, R. (1980) The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data. John Wiley & Sons, New York, New York.Google Scholar
- Kiefer, N. (1988) Economic duration data and hazard functions. Journal of Economic Literature, 26, 646–679.Google Scholar
- Kns, S.-G., Hamed, M. and Mannering, F. (1993) A Note on Commuters’ Activity Duration and the Efficiency of Proportional Hazards Models. Working paper, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.Google Scholar
- Krramura, R. (1988) An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis. Transportation, 15, 9–34Google Scholar
- Krramura, R. and Kermanshah, M. (1983) Identifying time and history dependencies of activity choice. Transportation Research Record, 944, 22–30Google Scholar
- Lancaster, T. (1990) The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data. Cambridge University Press, New York, New York.Google Scholar