Modelling and Forecasting with ARMA Processes

  • Peter J. Brockwell
  • Richard A. Davis
Part of the Springer Texts in Statistics book series (STS)


The determination of an appropriate ARMA(p, q) model to represent an observed stationary time series involves a number of interrelated problems. These include the choice of p and q (order selection) and estimation of the mean, the coefficients {φ i , i = 1,..., p}, {θ i , i = 1,..., q}, and the white noise variance σ 2. Final selection of the model depends on a variety of goodness of fit tests, although it can be systematized to a large degree by use of criteria such as the AICC statistic discussed in Section 5.5.


Maximum Likelihood Estimator Order Selection ARMA Process Burg Model Lake Data 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter J. Brockwell
    • 1
  • Richard A. Davis
    • 2
  1. 1.Royal Melbourne Institute of TechnologyMelbourneAustralia
  2. 2.Department of StatisticsColorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA

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