Abstract
We have shown how SSA can be used to filter a time series to retain desired modes of variability and further how to use SSA to extract a nonlinear trend. Here we discuss how the predictability of a system can be improved by forecasting the important oscillations in a time series taken from the system. The general idea is to filter the record first and then use some time-series model to forecast on the filtered series. There are a couple of time-series models for prediction to choose from. We first present the overall prediction strategy with reference to an autoregressive (AR) model. Then we demonstrate a prediction algorithm that does not require an underlying model.
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© 1996 Springer Science+Business Media New York
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Elsner, J.B., Tsonis, A.A. (1996). Prediction. In: Singular Spectrum Analysis. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2514-8_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2514-8_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4419-3266-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-4757-2514-8
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