Aggregation of Negotiated Expert Opinions

Abstract

There are many reasons to combine expert assessments and opinions. To list a diversity of areas, where such combinations are relevant, one may think of the weather forecast at a particular location and time, the estimated yield of a natural resources exploration project, the reliability/risk of a new device or technology, the location of a new shopping centre or a waste disposal site, the real-time response of an expert system in a given situation, and so forth. As reflected by these examples, the words ‘expert’, ‘assessment’, and ‘opinion’ will be used here in the broadest possible sense. The aim of this chapter is to propose a unifying framework to analyse and solve problems of aggregating opinions in an objective, quantitatively established manner. The discussion draws on Pintér and Cooke (1987), providing model extensions, much improved solution methodology, and nontrivial numerical examples.