Long-Term Energy Projections and Novel Energy Systems

  • Hans-Holger Rogner


Energy demand and supply projections are bound inextricably with external realities. Consequently, they reflect the dominant views on the development of those factors that primarily determine energy consumption. Some of these factors are highly uncertain or so difficult to quantify that it is impossible to model their effects. Other factors, such as economic activity or population development, can serve as variables that, to a large extent, determine energy consumption. Hence, parallel to the prospect of global economic activity slowly shifting from exponential growth (until the 1970s considered the norm) to a prolonged period of low growth, there have been similar downward revisions in the corresponding energy consumption. But, there are other reasons for the recent downward revisions of energy projections. In contrast to energy forecasters of the 1970s, today’s analysts can base their projections on empirical evidence about the response of industries and households to two unprecedented oil price increases of the last decade. Adjustments to the realities of high energy costs have resulted in energy efficiency improvements along the entire energy chain from resource extraction to consumption, as well as interfuel substitution, structural economic changes, and changes in individual attitudes.


Gross Domestic Product Primary Energy Consumption Fossil Fuel Consumption Apply System Analysis Total Primary Energy Consumption 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Ausubel, J. and W. D. Nordhaus. 1983. A review of estimates of future carbon dioxide emissions. In Changing Climate, pp. 153–185. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  2. Barnert, H. 1983. Kohleveredelung mit dem HUMBOLDT-Kohleveredelungs-verfahren. Internal publication. Nuclear Research Center Jülich, Jülich, FRG.Google Scholar
  3. Häfele, W. et al. 1981. Energy in a finite world: a global systems analysis. Report by the Energy Systems Program Group of IIASA. Ballinger, Cambridge, Massachusetts.Google Scholar
  4. Häfele, W., H. Barnert, and W. Sassin. 1982. Künftige fossile Brennstoffe: Ihre Nutzung und Einbettung in moderne Energiesysteme. Nuclear Research Center, Jülich, F.R.G.Google Scholar
  5. Häfele, W., H. Barnert, S. Messner, M. Strubegger, and J. Anderer. 1984. The concept of novel horizontally integrated energy systems: the case of zero emissions. Nuclear Research Center, Jülich, F.R.G.Google Scholar
  6. Häfele, W., and N. Nakicenovic. 1984. The contribution of oil and gas for the transition of long range novel energy systems, proceedings of the Eleventh World Petroleum Congress. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester-New York.Google Scholar
  7. Hicks, N. L. et al. 1976. A model of trade and growth for the developing world. Eur. Econ. Rev. 7: 239–255.Google Scholar
  8. Keyfitz, N. 1982. Global prospects for population growth and distribution. WP-82–36. International Institute for /Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.Google Scholar
  9. Manne, S. A. and L. Schrattenholzer. 1983. International energy workshop: individual poll responses. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.Google Scholar
  10. Marchetti, C. and N. Nakicenovic. 1979. The dynamics of energy systems and the logistic substitution model. RR-79–13. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.Google Scholar
  11. Messner, S. 1984. User’s guide for the matrix generator of MESSAGE II, part 1: model description and implementation guide; part 2: appendices. WP-84–71a and WP-84–71b. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.Google Scholar
  12. Rogner, H-H. 1982. Substitution of coal and gas for oil—some global considerations. Presentation at the First US–China Conference on Energy, Environment, and Resources, Beijing, Nov. 7–12, 1982.Google Scholar
  13. Rogner, H-H. 1983. IIASA ‘83 scenario of energy development: summary. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.Google Scholar
  14. Rotty, R. M. and G. Marland. 1980. Constraints on carbon dioxide production from fossil fuel use. ORAU/EA-80–9(M). Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.Google Scholar
  15. Sassin, W. 1982. Fossil energy and its alternatives—a problem beyond costs and prices. Presentation at the International Economic Association Conference on Economics of Alternative Sources of Energy, Tokyo, Sept. 7–Oct. 1, 1982.Google Scholar
  16. Smagorinsky, J. 1983. Effects of carbon dioxide. In Changing Climate, pp. 266284. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  17. U.S. Federal Government. 1983. Report of the inter-agency task force on acid precipitation. Washington, D.C.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1986

Authors and Affiliations

  • Hans-Holger Rogner

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations