Statistical Methods of Risk Assessment for Energy Technology

Abstract

Quantitative risk assessment for energy technology has become a task of high priority in view of the urgent need for the promotion of nuclear power and incomplete knowledge of low-probability/high-consequence nuclear plant accidents. Statistical and probabilistic methods constitute the exclusive analysis tool for energy related risk assessment because of the limited experience with nuclear technology and the complex nature of the biological effects of energy related pollutants. A simple model has been developed for quantitative assessment of risk associated with energy systems based on both fossil and nuclear fuels. A critical review of the statistical and probabilistic methods used for the quantification of risk is presented with particular reference to dose-effect relationships for stochastic biological effects, risk assessment for multiple parameters, quantification of probability for catastrophic events and approach to optimization for acceptable risk and decision making.