The HIV Epidemic in New York City; Statistical Methods for Projecting AIDS Incidence and Prevalence
Projections of the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed AIDS cases in New York City through 1995 make use of information from the New York City AIDS Surveillance Registry. The projections are done in three steps: First, adjustment of historic incidence data for observed delays in reporting. Second, estimation of the incidence of HIV infection in New York City during the past several years, based on the adjusted incidence data and external estimates of the latency distribution. Third, projection of future incidence of AIDS based on the estimated incidence of HIV infection. Survival after AIDS diagnosis is estimated from dates of diagnosis and death; these survival estimates are combined with estimated AIDS incidence to project prevalence of AIDS. Because little is known of the incidence of HIV infections since 1986, three alternative scenarios are explored: no new infections since 1986, 5,000 new infections per year, and 10,000 new infections per year. These represent the lower bound and two plausible alternative infection rates.
KeywordsHuman Immunodeficiency Virus York City Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Latency Distribution Harvard School
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