An Analytical Approach to a Quantitative Assessment of Force Capability

Abstract

The TREND Model is an analytical tool for evaluating

• defence concepts

• military force structures

• differenct equipment concepts

of the ground and air forces in Central Europe (the AFCENT area of responsibility). TREND is a highly aggregated method. It primarily uses analytic algorithms and is supported by a data base developed from very detailed war games which have been and still are used to simulate possible armed conflict situations in the AFCENT area between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces. For the application of the TREND model to the investigation of the Mutual Balanced Force Reductions (MBFR)-options and forces structures, the concept of the model had to include the following considerations:

• The pre-conflict developments (e.g. force build up and deployment) and the course of the battle had to be integrated, to permit the evaluation of the effects of MBFR option packages which essentially are a combination of force reductions, constraints and verification measures or systems.

• The ground and air forces deployed in the area investigated, including the external forces likely to enter the area, had to be investigated simultaneously.

• Resolution down to the brigade or division levels, respectively, was required to allow the investigation of equipment and structural alternatives, as well as the differences in organization and equipment of the forces of different nations.