Evaluation of the Potential Market for Various Future Communication Modes Via an Analysis of Communication Flow Characteristics

Abstract

The estimation of the potential market for future communication services suggests an analysis of existing communications flows in terms of the characteristics of the new services. If we define a new communication mode, in terms of a distinctive type of offered service, an evaluation of the total traffic flow potentially transfered from the existing communication mode to the new one is then possible. For example, 7% of the total number of face-to-face meetings and 14% of the total number of telephone contacts could be transfered to the future mode “multiconference” (which permits several persons to confer by telephone simultaneously). The long term forecast of total communications flows also involves a model of the evolution of establishments from the view point of their communication systems organization.