Abstract
This paper is an introductory contribution designed to stimulate discussion at the NATO Symposium on the evaluation and planning of telecommunications systems. It argues the case for a searching reappraisal of the quality and relevance of the growing volume of social, economic, behavioural and policy research into the implications of new telecommunications services and information technologies. The need for such research to underpin policy-making and planning through economic analysis, rational design, demand forecasting and many other approaches is generally acknowledged. A reappraisal of the field along the lines sketched in the paper would, it is suggested, show that the practical impact of the work has so far been slight and that serious deficiencies of strategy and method remain, despite considerable research achievements. An ‘agenda’ for the effort to develop this field of research and enhance its impact is suggested.
‘Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter neccessitatem’. William of Occam.
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Notes and References
Some authors write ‘need’, but mean ‘demand’ more or less precisely in the sense defined by economic theory: the amount of a service or a product that can be sold in the market under some given pricing arrangement. Others — including a significant but diminishing band within public telecommunications administrations—have in mind an approach that can be termed ‘paternalistic’ or ‘socially planned’, according to ideological preference. Yet others leave the meaning of ‘need’ totally unclear.
Ederyn Williams (1974). Is ‘Human Factors’ answering the important questions about telecommmications? In: Human Factors in Telecommunications, Proc. of the Seventh International Symposium, Montreal.
The work of the CSG in the formative period up to 1975 is well summarized in a report, ‘The effectiveness and acceptability of person-to-person telecommunications systems’ republished by Post Office Telecommunications in the U.K. as Long Range Research Report 3 in May 1975. The Annenberg Schools, the Harvard Program and the Alternate Media Center all piablish informative Annual Reports.
The Femmeldetechnisches Zentralamt (Central Technical Office for Telecommunications) of the Bunderministerium fur Post und Femmeldewesen (PTT Ministry), Federal Republic of Germany.
(5) Notably the Box-Jenkins time series methods which are used extensively in telephone companies and administrations for forecasting connections and traffic. S.R. Brubacher, ‘Forecasting in Bell Canada: Applications and Extensions of Box-Jenkins Model Building Techniques’. Proc. Int. Forecasting Conference, Windermere, 1977.
(6) Tyler, M., and Cartwright, B. (1974). Forecasting long-term for Telecommunications Services: methods and problems. Paper presented at the Aston Conference on Telecommunication Economics. Long Range Studies Divisions, Post Office Telecommunications (mimeo).
I use the word innovation as shorthand for any addition to—or fundamental change in—the range of telecommmication or information-processing services offered to the user, their detailed attributes, or the policies, prices and conditions associated with their use.
A comprehensive review of the teleconferencing work is given in Tyler and Cartwright, op. cit., and in the CSG report referred to in note 3. The MIT work is typified by: T.J. Allen and P.G. Gerstberger (1967), Criteria for selection of an information source. Report No. 284–67.
Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, September 1967.
See for example R.R. Panko, ‘The outlook for computer mail’, and R. Pye and E. Williams, ‘Teleconferencing: is video valuable or is audio adequate?’, both in Telecommunications Policy, Vol. 1, No. 3, June 1977.
A useful discussion of some of these issues can be found in: B. Stapley (1974), A comparison of field trials of teleconferencing equipment. Communications Studies Group, University College, London. Working Paper P/74244/ST.
Tyler, M. et al. (1977). Review and recommendations on the assessment of demand for new telecommunications services: Interim Report. Communications Studies and Planning Ltd. in association with PA International Management Consultants Ltd., PO/77001/TY, January 1977.
Hough, R.W. (1976). A state of the art survey and preliminary analysis. Prepared for the National Science Foundation by the Telecommunications Science Center, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California.
PA International Management Consultants Ltd. (1973). Eurodata, 1972–1985. Copyright/publisher: Televerket (Swedish Telecommunications Administration) Farsta, Sweden.
Data Transmission Company, Inc. (DATRAN) (1970). Comments of Data Transmission Company, FCC Docket No. 18920 (special carrier enquiry), 1st October 1970. Federal Commmications Commission, Washington D.C., U.S.A.
There is an extensive set of reports on the CEPT Business Communications Studies, but this has not yet been published. The CEPT Rapporteur for studies of demand for new services is Mr. B. Cartwright, Post Office Telecommunications/TSS6.1, 88 Hills Road, Cambridge, England.
Collins, H.A. (1977). Long range forecasting of telecommunications demand: message services in the U.K. Proc. Public Utilities Forecasting Conference, Bowness-on-Windemere, March 1977.
Federal Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (1976). Commission for the development of the telecommunication system. (Kommission für den Ausbau des technischen Kommunikationssystems: KtK.) Telecommunications Report. Federal Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, Bonn, Federal Republic of Germany.
M. Dormois, F. Fioux, and M. Gensollen. Evaluation of the potential market for various future communication modes via analysis of communication flow characteristics.
See the KtK report: Federal Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, Federal Republic of Germany, op. cit.
Many of these reports are not publicly available, but the approach is typified by an early and publicly available report for NASA: A study of trends in demand for information transfer. SRI, Feb. ‘70.
Williams, E., and Young, I. (1977). The choice to travel or teleconference amongst loudspeaking telephone users. Working Paper E/77077/WL, Communications Studies Group, University College London.
See for example: Porat, M. (1976). The information economy. Institute for Communication Research, Stanford University, report no. 27, August 1976.
J.G. de Chalvron, and N. Curien. Information, energy and labour force.
See for example: Rohlfs, J. (1974). A theory of interdependent demand for a communications service. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, Vol. 5, No. 1, Spring 1974.
Appendix E, ‘Pricing and the Dynamics of Demand Growth’, in ‘Review and recommendations on the assessment of demand for new telecommunications services’, op. cit.
An historical analysis of the causes of success and failure in innovation would be extremely valuable. Some work of this kind has been undertaken by the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University in England, with very interesting results summarized in Appendix B of the CS & P report to the U.K. Post Office cited in note 11. Two key points emerge: that a qualitative understanding of the nature and requirements of the market may be more crucial than the possession of a sophisticated quantitative model of demand; and that demand research prior to the extensive introduction of a new product or service is necessary since an ‘ad hocʼ process of modification of a product or service after introduction is more often associated with failure than with success. This should certainly not be interpreted as implying that services should not be modified as necessary subsequent to their introduction. It does suggest that such a pragmatic process on its own is unlikely to converge quickly and reliably enough as the ‘right’ service configuration or marketing strategy to ensure success: prior research is clearly- necessary.
See for example: Pye, R. (1976). The effect of telecommunications on the location of office employment. Omega: the International Journal of Management Science. Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 289–300
Goddard, J.B., and Pye, R. (1977). Telecommunications and office location. Regional Studies, Vol. 11, pp. 19–30.
See: Stanford Research Institute (1977). Technology Assessment of telecommunications/transportation interactions. (3 volmes), prepared mder contract NSF-C1025 for the National Science Foundation (Office of Exploratory Research and Problem Assessment) by Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California, in association with Communications Studies and Planning Ltd.
Research on the impact of technology on workers’ value- systems is being funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and directed by Dr. John Clippinger at Kalba Bowen Associates, 12 Arrow Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.
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Tyler, M. (1978). User Research and Demand Research: What’s the Use?. In: Elton, M.C.J., Lucas, W.A., Conrath, D.W. (eds) Evaluating New Telecommunications Services. Nato Conference Series, vol 6. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-0175-3_1
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