Abstract
An interactive computer program developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is presented as a methodology to model individualized belief structures. The logic and general strategy of the model are presented for two risk topics: AIDS and toxic waste. Subjects identified desirable and undesirable consequences for each topic and formulated an associative rule linking topic and consequence in either a causal or a correlational framework. Likelihood estimates, generated by subjects in several formats (probability, odds statements, etc.), constituted one outcome measure. Additionally, source of belief (personal experience, news media, etc.) and perceived personal and societal impact are reviewed. Briefly, subjects believe that AIDS causes significant emotional problems, and to a lesser degree, physical health problems, whereas toxic waste causes significant environmental problems.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anderson, J., 1982, “Acquisition of Cognitive Skill,” Psychological Review 89: 369–406.
Barsalon, L. and Bower, G., 1984, “Discrimination Nets as Psychological Models,” Cognitive Science 8: 1–26.
Brachman, R., and Schmolze, J., 1985, “An Overview of the KL-ONE Knowledge Representation System,” Cognitive Science 9: 171–216.
Cohen, B. and Murphy, G., 1984, “Models of Concepts,” Cognitive Science 8: 27–58.
Fiksel, J. and Covello, V., 1986, “Knowledge Systems for Risk Communication,” presented at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Expert Systems and Expert Judgment, Porto, Portugal, August.
Fischhoff, B., 1984, “Informed Consent for Transient Nuclear Workers,” in R. Kasperson and R. Kates (Eds.), Equity Issues in Nuclear Waste Disposal, Oelgeschlager, Gunn, and Hain, Cambridge, MA.
Fischhoff, B., Watson, S., and Hope, C., 1984, “Defining Risk,” Policy Sciences 17: 123–139.
Harding, C. and Eiser, J. R., 1984, “Characterizing the Perceived Risks and Benefits of Some Health Issues,” Risk Analysis 4: 131–141.
Johnson, H., 1987, unpublished material, Martin Marietta Data Systems, Denver, CO. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A (Eds.), 1982, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Kasperson, R., 1986, “Six Propositions on Public Participation and Their Relevance for Risk Communication,” Risk Analysis 6: 275–281.
Keeney, R. and von Winterfeldt, D., 1986, “Improving Risk Communication,” Risk Analysis 6: 417–424.
Schank, R. and Riesbeck, C. (Eds.), 1981, Inside Computer Understanding, Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale, New Jersey.
Simon, H., 1979, “Information Processing Models of Cognition,” The Annual Review of Psychology 30: 363–396.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., and Lichtenstein, S., 1982, “Facts Versus Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk,” in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (Eds.) Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., and Lichtenstein, S., 1984, “Behavioral Decision Theory Perspectives on Risk and Safety,” Acta Psychologica 56: 183–203.
Tonn, B. and Arrowood, L., 1987, “ARK–Acquiring and Reasoning About Knowledge,” Proceedings of the Third Annual Expert Systems in Government Conference, Washington, D.C., Oct. 21–23.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1989 Plenum Press, New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Tonn, B.E., Travis, C.B., Arrowood, L., Goeltz, R., Mann, C.A. (1989). Analysis of Individual Risk Belief Structures. In: Bonin, J.J., Stevenson, D.E. (eds) Risk Assessment in Setting National Priorities. Advances in Risk Analysis, vol 7. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5682-0_46
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5682-0_46
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4684-5684-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-4684-5682-0
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive