Abstract
One of the major problems encountered in cancer risk assessment is the estimation of risk for short-term exposures based upon results from chronic bioassays in which animals are exposed for a lifetime (generally two years for rodents). In the absence of data on cancer incidence for short-term exposures, the assumption is generally made that the cancer risk is proportional to the total accumulated dose (or equivalently, to the average dose rate) of a carcinogen, regardless of the ages at the times of exposures. This paper investigates the impact of using the total accumulated lifetime dose assumption to estimate cancer risk for short-term exposure for two carcinogenesis models, the Armitage-Doll multistage model and the Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (M-V-K) birth-death mutation model. Two assumptions are discussed: (A) the fraction of lifetime dose rate assumes that the risk from a fractional lifetime exposure at a given dose rate is equal to the risk from full lifetime exposure at that same fraction of the given dose rate; and (B) the fraction of lifetime risk assumes that the risk from a fractional lifetime exposure at a given dose rate is equal to that same fraction of the risk from full lifetime exposure at the same dose rate. These two assumptions are equivalent when risk is a linear function of dose. Thus both can be thought of as generalizations of the assumption that cancer risk is proportional to the total accumulated lifetime dose.
Keywords
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
P. Armitage and R. Doll, “Stochastic Models for Carcinogenesis,” in Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability 4:19–38, University of California Press (1961).
A. Whittemore and J. B. Keller, “Quantitative Theories of Carcinogenesis,” SIAM Review 20: 1–30 (1978).
N. E. Day and C. C. Brown, C. C., “Multistage Models and Primary Prevention of Cancer,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 64: 977–989 (1980).
K. S. Crump and R. B. Howe, R. B., “The Multistage Model with a Time-Dependent Dose Pattern: Applications to Carcinogenic Risk Assessment,” Risk Analysis 4: 163–176 (1984).
S. H. Moolgavkar and D. J. Venzon, “Two-Event Models for Carcinogenesis: Incidence Curves for Childhood and Adult Tumors,” Mathematical Biosciences 47: 55–77 (1979).
S. H. Moolgavkar and A. G. Knudson, “Mutation and Cancer: A Model for Human Carcinogenesis,” J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 66: 1037–1052 (1981).
T. W. Thorslund, C. C. Brown, and G. Charnley, “The Use of Biologically Motivated Mathematical Models to Predict the Actual Cancer Risk Associated with Environmental Exposure to a Carcinogen,” Risk Analysis 7: 109–119 (1987).
R. L. Kodell, D. W. Gaylor, and J. J. Chen, “Consequences of Using Average Lifetime Dose Rate to Predict Risk from Intermittent Exposures to Carcinogens,” Risk Analysis 7: 339–345 (1987).
J. J. Chen, R. L. Kodell, and D. W. Gaylor, “Using the Biological Two-Stage Model to Assess Risk from Short-Term Exposures,” Risk Analysis (accepted, 1987 ).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1989 Plenum Press, New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Chen, J.J., Kodell, R.L., Gaylor, D.W. (1989). Assessment of Risk from Short-Term Exposures. In: Bonin, J.J., Stevenson, D.E. (eds) Risk Assessment in Setting National Priorities. Advances in Risk Analysis, vol 7. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5682-0_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5682-0_10
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4684-5684-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-4684-5682-0
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive