Abstract
The use of formal decision models can supposedly enhance the quality of safety decisions. It is discussed why there has been an increasing demand for such models in recent years. A short description of a safety model is presented. This model is based on the basic ideas of formal decision analysis and it has been applied in many different fields of technology.
The second part of the paper is concerned with a specific problem in the risk appraisal part of the model. In the real world it can be observed quite frequently that people do not base their safety decisions on expected damages. In this context the notion “risk aversion” is often brought into discussion. In a narrower sense “risk aversion” refers to the fact that a rare but catastrophic event seems to have more impact than many small accidents with the same expected number of fatalities. It is argued that an elaboration of this effect would be worthwhile. Some ideas are given on how the risk aversion effect can be modeled.
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References
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© 1987 Plenum Press, New York
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Bohnenblust, H., Schneider, T. (1987). Risk Appraisal — Can It Be Improved by Formal Decision Models?. In: Covello, V.T., Lave, L.B., Moghissi, A., Uppuluri, V.R.R. (eds) Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making. Advances in Risk Analysis, vol 4. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5317-1_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5317-1_6
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
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