Abstract
Probabilistic analysis of warning systems can be used to make technical, strategic, and tactical decisions regarding the signals to be observed, the warning to be issued, and the response to alerts. Response to alerts can be either a decision variable or a parameter of the problem.
A modeling of the response function depends on the frequency and the uncertainty of the hazardous event. Two cases corresponding to different response situations are presented here. Fires in students’ dormitories are frequent events: the response to a firm alarm is determined by the system’s past performance; false alarms create the crying-wolf effect. Accidents in nuclear power plants are rare events for which we have only limited knowledge and experience: the response to emergency warning is influenced by the people’s perception of the risk and the sociological context of the warning. Different models of response to warnings are developed and integrated into the probabilistic analysis of warning systems for decision-making purposes.
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© 1987 Plenum Press, New York
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Paté-Cornell, M.E., Benito-Claudio, C.P. (1987). Warning Systems: Response Models and Optimization. In: Covello, V.T., Lave, L.B., Moghissi, A., Uppuluri, V.R.R. (eds) Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making. Advances in Risk Analysis, vol 4. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5317-1_36
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5317-1_36
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