Skip to main content

Validation and Assessment Issues of Energy Models

  • Chapter
Energy Policy Planning

Part of the book series: Nato Conference Series ((SYSC,volume 9))

Abstract

This paper reviews some of the background and issues related to current research in validation and assessment of energy models. It is concerned mainly with models that are complex in terms of their large number of variables and relationships, the scope and range of the problem environment, the data requirements, the assumptions that are made, the need to express the models as computer programs, and the interpretation of the solutions. The models of interest are those that have been developed as aids to governmental and industrial policymakers in guiding this country’s energy future. (The concerns of model assessment are, of course, not restricted to the class of energy models.)

“The human mind is incapable of thinking other than about models.” R. Isaacs1

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. R. Isaacs, “On Applied Mathematics,” Journal of Optimization Theory and Application 27, 1 (Jan. 1979).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. G. S. Fishman and P. J. Kiviat, “Digital Computer Simulation: Statistical Considerations,” RM-5387-PR (1967), The Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  3. M. Greenberger and R. Richels, “Assessing Energy Policy Models: Current State and Future Directions,” Annual Review of Energy 4 (1979).

    Google Scholar 

  4. S. I. Gass, “Evaluation of Complex Models, ” Computers and Operations Research 4, (1977) 27–35.

    Google Scholar 

  5. S. I. Gass, “A Procedure for the Evaluation of Complex Models,” Proceedings, First International Conference in Mathematical Models, U. of Missouri, 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Guidelines for Model Evaluation, PAD-79-17, U.S. GAO, Washington, D.C., January 1979.

    Google Scholar 

  7. P. W. House and J. McLeod, Large-Scale Models for Policy Evaluation ( John Wiley and Sons, NY, 1977 ).

    Google Scholar 

  8. J. Clark and S. Cole, Global Simulation Models: A Comparative Study ( John Wiley and Sons, NY, 1975 ).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Review of the 1974 Project Independence Evaluation System, OPA-76-20, U.S. GAO, Washington, D.C., April 21, 1976.

    Google Scholar 

  10. An Evaluation of the Use of the Transfer Income Model—TRIM— to Analyze Welfare Programs, PAD-78-14 (Nov. 25, 1977 ), U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  11. G. Fromm, W. L. Hamilton, and D. E. Hamilton, “Federally Supported Mathematical Models: Survey and Analysis,” U.S. GPO, Stock No. 038-000-0021-0, Washington, D.C., 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  12. M. Shubik and G. D. Brewer, “Models, Simulations, and Games—A Survey,” R-1060-ARPA/RC (May 1972), The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  13. M. Greenberger, M. A. Crenson, and B. L. Crissey, “Models in the Policy Process” (1976), Russell Sage Foundation, NY.

    Google Scholar 

  14. S. I. Gass, “Assessing Ways to Improve the Utility of Large-Scale Models,” in Ref. 28.

    Google Scholar 

  15. G. Brewer, “What Ever Happened to Professionalism?” Interfaces 8, 4 (Aug. 1978).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Ways to Improve Management of Federally Funded Computerized Models, LCD-75-111 (Aug. 23, 1976 ), U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Activities of the Office of Energy Information and Analysis (Dec. 1977), Professional Audit Review Team, U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Activities of the Energy Information Administration, (May 1979), Professional Audit Review Team, U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  19. G. Brewer, Politicians, Bureaucrats, and the Consultant—A Critique of Urban Problem Solving, ( Basic Books, New York, 1973 ).

    Google Scholar 

  20. J. L. Steele, The Use of Econometric Models by Federal Regulatory Agencies ( Health-Lexington Books, New York, 1971 ).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Environmental Modeling and Decision Making (1976), Holcomb Research Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  22. R. E. Pugh, Evaluation of Policy Simulation Models (Information Resources Press, Washington, D.C. 1977 ).

    Google Scholar 

  23. W. W. Hogan, J. L. Sweeney, and M. H. Wagner, “Energy Policy Models in the National Energy Outlook,” TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences (Elsevier North Holland, 1978 ).

    Google Scholar 

  24. W. W. Hogan, “Energy Modeling: Building Understanding for Better Use,” Second Lawrence Symposium on Systems and Decision Sciences, 1978.

    Google Scholar 

  25. J. A. Hausman, “Project Independence Report: An Appraisal of U.S. Energy Needs Up to 1985,” Bell Journal of Economics and Management 6, (1975).

    Google Scholar 

  26. R. A. DeMilo, R. J. K. Lipton, and A. J. Perlis, “Social Processes and Proofs of Theorems and Programs, ” Communication of the ACM 22, 5 (May 1979).

    Google Scholar 

  27. E. Kuh and D. O. Wood, “Independent Assessment of Energy Policy Model,” Final Report, Research Project 1015–1 (May 1979), MIT Energy Laboratory, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    Google Scholar 

  28. S. I. Gass (Editor), “Validation and Assessment Issues of Energy Models,” (Feb. 1980), National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 569, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  29. S. I. Gass, “Computer Model Documentation: A Review and An Approach” (Feb. 1979), National Bureau of Standards, Special Publication 500–39, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  30. H. Greenberg, “The FEA Project Independence Experience,” in Ref. 34.

    Google Scholar 

  31. D. Kresge, “An Approach to Independent Model Assessment,” in Ref. 28.

    Google Scholar 

  32. J. Mulvey, “Strategies in Model Management,” in Ref. 34.

    Google Scholar 

  33. M. Holloway, “The Texas National Energy Modeling Project: An Evaluation of EIA’s Midrange Energy Forecasting System,” in Ref. 28.

    Google Scholar 

  34. S. I. Gass, (Editor) “Utility and Use of Large-Scale Mathematical Models” (May 1979), National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 534, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1981 Plenum Press, New York

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Gass, S.I. (1981). Validation and Assessment Issues of Energy Models. In: Bayraktar, B.A., Cherniavsky, E.A., Laughton, M.A., Ruff, L.E. (eds) Energy Policy Planning. Nato Conference Series, vol 9. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-1080-8_28

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-1080-8_28

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4684-1082-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4684-1080-8

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics