Energy Demand Analysis and Modeling

Abstract

Energy demand analysis begins from the observation that most energy consumers are concerned not with the purchase and use of fuels but rather with the services those fuels provide. For example, the fundamental concern of the home owner is not oil for his furnace but rather space heat within the dwelling. The automobile owner is primarily interested in passenger miles of mobility and not in gasoline for its own sake. The plant manager in a factory is concerned not with coal for his boiler but with the steam he uses in his industrial process. From this point of view it becomes clear that the purpose of any energy policy or action is to provide these energy services to consumers reliably, economically, and consistently with environmental and social objectives. The various energy technologies or other actions proposed are not ends in themselves but rather competitive means of providing these services. Efficiency improvement technologies thus become competitors with alternative fuels within a consistent framework of meeting consumer needs at minimum cost, consistent with other social objectives.