Energy Models and Technology Assessment

Abstract

For the past decade or more work has been carried out in many countries on the development of comprehensive energy models and the preparation of technology assessment studies, with the objective of providing an improved basis for decisions with regard to the increasingly complex problems in the sphere of energy supply and energy policies. Many millions of dollars have been invested in the improvement of the energy planning instruments and the analysis of the consequences of the utilization of various energy sources for the economy, the environment and society. Nevertheless, public discussions on the energy problem and conceptions of energy policy as put forward by various political parties and pressure groups give the impartial observer more the impression of a free-for-all for diverging, even contrary and contradictory ideas, than of a clear and resolute energy policy able to master these urgent problems. Have the energy models and the technology assessment studies not achieved their goal of providing an improved basis for decisions? Or are there other reasons for the uncertainty and confusion which characterize the present situation?