Ecological Forecasting: “What for?”

Abstract

Nearly 20 years have passed since the Stockholm Conference drew the attention of the world community to the global nature of ecological problems facing humanity. A huge number of meetings, conferences, and workshops have been held during this period of time, a number of international organizations have been set up, and intensive studies within the framework of a variety of ecological programs have been conducted both at the international and national levels. Individual countries and the world community at large have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in environmental conservation. Have we succeeded in bringing nature-society relationships into harmony? The rapid degradation of soils, depletion of rain forests at a rate of 2 ha per minute, acid rain, destruction of the ozone layer, and —most alarmingly—the pandemic spread of diseases brought about by environmental pollution are indicative of the fact that we are as far from harmonious relationships as we were 20 years ago.

Sergei Pegov is Head of Department of System Ecology at the Institute for System Analysis of the Russian Academy of Sciences.