Abstract
Modeling techniques such as linear regression have been used to predict hurricane activity many months in advance of the start of the hurricane season with some success. In this paper, we construct feed forward neural networks to model Atlantic basin hurricane activity and compare the predictions of our neural network models to the predictions produced by statistical models found in the weather forecasting literature. We find that our neural network models produce reasonably accurate predictions that, for the most part, compare favorably to the predictions of statistical models.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
W. M. Gray, “Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 1994,” Technical Report, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado (1994).
W. M. Gray, C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, and K. J. Berry, “Predicting Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity 6–11 Months in Advance,” Weather and Forecasting, 7, 440–455 (1992).
W. M. Gray, C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, and K. J. Berry, “Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 August,” Weather and Forecasting, 8, 73–86 (1993).
W. M. Gray, C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, and K. J. Berry, “Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 June,” Weather and Forecasting, 9, 103–115 (1994).
O. Kwon, B. Golden, E. Wasil, and R. Gordon, “Modeling Hurricane Activity Using Neural Networks,” in Proceedings of the International Conference on Neural Information Processing Volume 2 (edited by M-W. Kim and S-Y. Lee), Seoul, Korea, 1005–1009, (1994).
R. H. Simpson, “The Hurricane Disaster-Potential Scale,” Weatherwise, 27, 169 and 186 (1974).
W. K. Stevens, “95 Hurricane Season Seen as One of the Fiercest in the Last 20 Years,” The New York Times, Vol. CXLIV, No. 50105 (June 27), C1 and C7 (1995).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1997 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Kwon, O., Golden, B., Wasil, E. (1997). A Neural Network Model for Predicting Atlantic Hurricane Activity. In: Barr, R.S., Helgason, R.V., Kennington, J.L. (eds) Interfaces in Computer Science and Operations Research. Operations Research/Computer Science Interfaces Series, vol 7. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-4102-8_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-4102-8_5
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-6837-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-4615-4102-8
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive