An Historical Classification

Abstract

Many professionals, especially dentists and doctors, are a little embarrassed by the history of their profession. Forecasting is no exception. It is tempting to smile a little when thinking of some ancient shaman examining sheep’s livers. However, this reaction may be a little harsh, because many forecasting methods are based in good logic. Even those methods that do not appear to be anything more than random number generating machines might have had important decision-making attributes. When it comes to human activities, including commerce, it may well be a mistake to assume modern man is more intelligent or more knowledgeable than the ancients.