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Evaluating a Forecast

  • Mike Metcalfe

Abstract

This chapter considers how a forecast attempt might be reviewed: a post-mortem. It also serves to review and consolidate many of the points in the book about managing a forecast attempt. The objective of a reviews is to determine whether a forecast attempt was effective, in terms of cost, learning, and accuracy, and also whether it was complete (see the appendix for one example of a forecast being reviewed). No distinction will be made between the words “audit”, “appraisal”, “post mortem”, “review” or “evaluation”. It is the author’s impression that most forecasts are not reviewed. It is suggested that they should be, but that the emphasis should be on the impact of the forecast, rather than its accuracy. Furthermore, since it has been argued that managers should do their own forecasts, it is logical to also suggest that the forecast group review its own performance.

Keywords

Causal Model Line Manager Money Growth Journal Economic Enquiry History Repeat 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1995

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mike Metcalfe
    • 1
  1. 1.Commerce DepartmentAdelaide UniversityAustralia

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