Probability-based life Prediction
The estimation of the life expectancy of a structure is not a simple task. Many factors affect the life of a structure. These factors include design parameters, design safety factors, design methods, type of structure, structural details, materials, construction methods and quality, loads, maintenance practices, inspection methods, and other environmental factors. These factors have different types of uncertainty associated with them. Generally, these factors have the following types of uncertainty: (1) physical randomness in magnitude and time of occurrence, (2) statistical uncertainties due to using limited amount of information in estimating the characteristics of the population, (3) model uncertainties due to approximations in the prediction models, and (4) vagueness in the definition of various factors and their effect on life. Therefore, the estimation of life expectancy is a complex process.
KeywordsFatigue Transportation Brittle Hull Dition
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Ang, A. H.-S., and W. H. Tang (1984). Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. 2: Decision, Risk and Reliability. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
- Anus, B. M., and G. I. White (1987). Reliability Analysis of the Island-Class Patrol Boat. Report. Avery Point, Connecticut: U.S. Coast Guard R&D Center.Google Scholar
- Anus, B. M., and G. I. White (1988). Life Expectancy Assessment and Durability of the Island-Class Patrol Boat Hull Structure. Report. Avery Point, Connecticut: U.S. Coast Guard R&D Center.Google Scholar
- Anus, B. M., G. I. White, T. F. Bell-Wright, and E. S. Purcell (1990). Reliability-Based Comparative Life Expectancy Assessment of Patrol Boat Hull Structures. Report No. CG-D-02–90. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation.Google Scholar
- De Kraker, A., J. W. Tichler, and A. C. W. M. Vrouwenvelder (1982). Safety, Reliability and Service Life of Structures. Delft, the Netherlands: Department of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology.Google Scholar
- Hughes, O. E (1981). Design of laterally loaded plating—uniform pressure loads. SNAME Journal of Ship Research 25(2):77–89.Google Scholar
- Purcell, E. S., S. J. Allen, and R. J. Walker (1988). Structural analysis of the U.S. Coast Guard island-class patrol boat. SNAME Transactions 96(7):1–23.Google Scholar
- Schumacher, M. (1979). Seawater Corrosion Handbook. New Jersey: Noyes Data Corporation.Google Scholar
- Tallin, A., E Kirkimo, and H. Madsen (1988). Probabilistic fatigue crack growth analysis with reliability updating. In: Proceedings of 5th ASCE Specialty Conference on Probabilisitic Methods in Civil Engineering. New York: American Society of Civil Engineers.Google Scholar
- Thoft-Christensen, P., and Y. Murotsu (1985). Applications of Structural Systems Reliability Theory. New York: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
- Yazdani, N., and P. Albrecht (1990). Probabilistic fracture mechanics applications to bridges. Engineering Fracture Mechanics 77(5):769–785.Google Scholar