Abstract
Two series, German mark/US dollar exchange rate and US consumer price index time series, are tested to illustrate if noise reduction could help to improve prediction. Three nonlinear noise reduction methods, local projective (LP), singular value decomposition (SVD) and simple nonlinear filtering (SNL), are used to generate the filtered time series. Different projection dimensions of the noise reduction methods are also selected for the sensitivity test on the prediction results. The results show that noise reduction does help in improving prediction in both of the examples providing that an appropriate method of noise reduction and suitable parameter values for the method are used.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
A.M. Albano, A. Passamante, T. Hediger and M.E. Farrell, Using neural nets to look for chaos, Physica D, Vol.58(1992), 1–9.
L. Cao, Y. Hong, H. Zhao and S. Deng, Predicting economic time series using a nonlinear deterministic technique, Computational Economics, Vol.9(1996), 149–178.
L. Cao, B.G. Kim, J. Kurths and S. Kim, Detecting determinism in human posture control data, Int. J. of Bifurcation and Chaos, Vol.8(1998), 179–188.
L. Cao and A. Soofi, Nonlinear deterministic prediction of daily dollar exchange rates, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.l5(1999), 421–430.
J.D. Farmer and J.J. Sidorowich, Predicting chaotic time series, Phys. Rev. Lett., Vol.59(1987), 845.
P. Grassberger, R. Hegger, H. Kantz, C. Schaffrath and T. Schreiber, On noise reduction methods for chaotic data, Chaos, Vol.3(1993), 127.
D. Harvey, S. Leybourne and P. Newbold, Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13(1997), 281–291.
R. Hegger, H. Kantz, and T. Schreiber, Practical implementation of nonlinear time series methods: The TISEAN package, Chaos, Vol.9(1999), 413.
H. Kantz and T. Schreiber, Nonlinear Time series analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1997).
F. Lisi and A. Medio, Is a random walk the best exchange rate predictor?, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.l3(1997), 255–267.
E. Ott, T. Sauer and J.A. Yorke, Coping with chaos: Analysis of chaotic data and the exploitation of chaotic systems, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (1994).
T. Schreiber, Extremely simple nonlinear noise reduction method, Phys. Rev. E, Vol.47(1993), 2401.
T. Schreiber, Interdisciplinary application of nonlinear time series methods, Physics Reports, Vol.320(1998), 1–86.
A.S. Soofi and L. Cao, Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily peseta-dollar exchange rate, Economics Letters, Vol.62(1999), 175–180.
F. Takens, in Dynamical Systems and Turbulence, Warwick, edited by D. Rand and L.S. Young, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, Vol.898(1980), 366–381.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Soofi, A.S., Cao, L. (2002). Nonlinear Forecasting of Noisy Financial Data. In: Soofi, A.S., Cao, L. (eds) Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data. Studies in Computational Finance, vol 2. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-0931-8_22
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-0931-8_22
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-5310-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-4615-0931-8
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive