On the Use of Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference

Abstract

Due to the interconnection of modern electronic systems such as IT networks, it becomes impossible to predict the reliability of the whole system solely deterministically. The system needs to be decomposed in smaller elements which are easier to analyze by itself. Despite the functional structure of the system, also the electromagnetic topology needs to be taken into consideration. Critical system elements may be placed in shielded rooms where the deterministic calculation of electromagnetic fields is not reasonable because slight changes in this environment can drastically change the electromagnetic field structure in that enclosure. Furthermore, there are also a big variety of electromagnetic threats that the system can be exposed to. Due to these uncertainties, a complex system must be analyzed statistically. Hence, there is a need for a systematical analysis method which takes the uncertainties from different sources into consideration and which combines this knowledge in order to predict the risk. Moreover, the analysis should enable to identify the main contributors to the risk. The objective of this article is first to define the expression risk and second to present some of the aspects of probabilistic risk assessment and to show how those can be applied to IEMI problems.