Abstract
Forrester’s World Dynamics model (Forrester, World Dynamics. Wright-Allen, Cambridge, 1971) and the subsequent Limits to Growth study (Meadows et al., Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World. Wright-Allen, Cambridge, 1974) led to make a pioneering statement recognizing the intertwined nature of resource use (that subsumed energy) and its environmental repercussions. Yet, policy actions pertaining to energy and environment have remained quite detached, even though the interaction between the two is now common knowledge. The Limits study made appeals for controlling population, resource use, and environmental pollution, albeit the operational policy options for achieving those ends that can be implemented through existing intervention structure (or policy space) continue to be a challenge, which this chapter attempts to address to meet the more specific objective of sustaining energy supply and environment concomitantly. It draws on a simple model suggested in Saeed (Technol. Forecast Soc. 28:311–323, 1985), which does not deal with the human activity modeled in the Limits project but with the eco-system impacted by the human activity. Thus, it incorporates the policy space needed for managing the ecosystem rather than the demand for resources, which helps to delineate the operational means to avoid the impending catastrophe predicted in the Limits study. It also explores the operational means for managing the environmental impact of energy use, the principles of which are outlined in Saeed (J. Econ. Issues 38(4):909–937, 2004). These principles call for integrating environmental restoration into the market activity. The policy issues pertaining to energy use and environmental restoration are dealt with in separate models following the problem-partitioning principles outlined in Saeed (Syst. Dynam. Rev. 8(2): 251–261, 1992).
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Abelson, P.H., Hammond, A.L.: The new world of materials. Science 191(4228), 683–689 (1974)
Acharya, S.R., Saeed, K.: An attempt to operationalize the recommendations of the “Limits to Growth” study to sustain future of mankind. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 12(4), 281–304 (1996)
Bauer, R.A.: The study of policy formation: an introduction. In: Bauer, R.A., Gergen, K.J. (eds.) The Study of Policy Formation, The Free Press, London (1968)
Bower, J.L.: Description decision theory from the administrative view point. In: Bauer, R.A., Gergen, K.J. (eds.) The Study of Policy Formation, The Free Press, London (1968)
Boyd, R.: World dynamics, a note. Science 177(4048): 516–519 (1972)
Brooks, D.B., Andrews, P.W.: World Population and Mineral Resources: Counterintuitive or Not? UN Symposium on Population, Resources and Environment. United Nations, Stockholm (1973)
Brooks, D.B., Andrews, P.W.: Mineral resources, economic growth, and world population. Science 185(4145), 13–19 (1974)
Cook, E.: Limits to exploitation of non-renewable resources. Science 191(4228), 677–682 (1976)
Daly, H.E.: The economics of steady state. Am. Econ. Rev. 64(2), 15–21 (1974)
Forrester, J.W.: World Dynamics. Wright-Allen, Cambridge (1971)
Georgescu-Roegen, N.: The Entropy Law and the Economic Process. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1971).
Hayes, B.: Balancing on a pencil point. Am. Sci. 81(6), 510–516 (1993)
Herzog, H.: Scaling up carbon dioxide capture and storage: from megatons to gigatons. Energ. Econ. 33(4), 597–604 (2011)
Hopkins, M.S.: The loop you can’t get out of, an interview with Jay Forrester. Sloan Manage. Rev. 50(2): 9–12 (2009)
Lindell, L., Porter, D.R, Salveen, D.A. (eds.): Mitigation Banking, Theory and Practice. Island, Washington (1996)
Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., Berhens III, W.W.: The Limits to Growth. Universe Books, New York (1972)
Meadows, D.L., Meadows, D.H., et al.: Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World. Wright-Allen, Cambridge (1974)
Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J.: Beyond the Limits. Chelsea Green, Post Mills (1992)
Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J.: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. Chelsea Green, Post Mills (2004)
Mill, J.S.: Of the stationary state. In: Mill, J.S.: Principles of Political Economy with Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy, book 4, chap. 6. Parker, London (1848)
Miller, J.G.: The Earth as a system. Behav. Sci. 27(4), 303–322 (1982)
Nordhaus, W.D.: World dynamics: measurement without data. Econ. J. 83(332), 1156–1183 (1973)
Nordhaus, W.D.: The Efficient Use of Energy Resources. Cowels Foundation, Yale University Press, New Haven (1979)
Ourisson, G.: The microbial origin of fossil fuels. Sci. Am. 251(2), 34–41 (1984)
Page, T.: Conservation and Economic Efficiency: An Approach To Materials Policy. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore (1977)
Pearce, D.W., Turner, R.K.: Economics of Natural Resources and Environment. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore (1989)
Rapoport, A.: Decision Theory and Decision Behavior: Normative and Descriptive Approaches. Kluwer, Norwell (1989)
Ravelle, R.: Will Earth’s Land and Water Resources Be Sufficient for Future Populations? UN Symposium on Population, Natural Resources and Environment. United Nations, Stockholm (1973)
Saeed, K.: An attempt to determine criteria for sensible rates of use of material resources. Technol. Forecast Soc. 28, 311–323 (1985)
Saeed, K.: Slicing a complex problem for system dynamics modeling. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 8(3), 251–261 (1992)
Saeed, K.: Development Planning and Policy Design: A System Dynamics Approach. Avebury, Aldershot (1994)
Saeed, K.: Sustainable development, old conundrums, new discords, Jay Wright Forrester award lecture. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 12(1), 59–80 (1996)
Saeed, K.: Articulating developmental problems for policy intervention: a system dynamics modeling approach. Simulat. Gaming 34(3), 409–436 (2003)
Saeed, K.: Designing an environmental mitigation banking institution for linking the size of economic activity to environmental capacity. J. Econ. Issues 38(4) 909–937 (2004)
Solow, R.: Economics of resources or resources of economics. Am. Econ. Rev. 64(2), 1–14 (1974)
Tietenberg, T.H.: Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, 6th edn. Addison Wesley, Boston (2003)
Wildlandsinc.com.: Mitigation Banks. http://www.wildlandsinc.comAccessed: 20 Aug 2013
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Appendix: Model Equations
Appendix: Model Equations
Demand
exog_demand_f = (initial_expenditure)*(1 + RAMP(slope, T))
DOCUMENT: RESOURCE DEMAND SCHEDULE (EXOGENEOUS)
initial_expenditure = 10
DOCUMENT: INITIAL EXPENDITURE RATE
slope = 0.01
DOCUMENT: SLOPE OF EXOGENOUS DEMAND SCHEDULE
T = 0
DOCUMENT: TIME PARAMETER IN EXOGENOUS DEMAND SCHEDULE
Exploitable Resources
exploitable_res(t) = exploitable_res(t – dt) + (reclassification + discovery – exploitation) * dt
INIT exploitable_res = initial_expenditure*normal_exploit_delay
DOCUMENT: EXPLOITABLE RESOURCES
INFLOWS:
reclassification = spent_res*fr_reclassified*reclass_sw
DOCUMENT: RECYCLING RATE
discovery = potentially_usable_res/discovery_delay
DOCUMENT: DISCOVERY RATE
OUTFLOWS:
exploitation (IN SECTOR: usable resources)reclass_sw = 1
Potentially Usable Resources
potentially_usable_res(t) = potentially_usable_res(t − dt) + (regeneration − discovery) * dt
INIT potentially_usable_res = initial_expenditure*normal_discovery_delay
DOCUMENT: POTENTIALLY USABLE RESOURCES
INFLOWS:
regeneration = spent_res/regen_time
DOCUMENT: REGENERATION RATE
OUTFLOWS:
discovery (IN SECTOR: exploitable resources)
resource availability
availability = usable_res/desired_usable_res
DOCUMENT: RESOURCE AVAILABILITY
av_availability = SMTH1(availability, time_to_smooth_av)
DOCUMENT: AVERAGE RESOURCE AVAILABILITY
desired_usable_res = res_demand*res_coverage_time
DOCUMENT: DESIRED USABLE RESOURCES
discovery_delay = normal_discovery_delay*effect_of_av_on_discovery_relay
DOCUMENT: DISCOVERY DELAY
exploitation_delay = normal_exploit_delay*effect_of_res_av_on_expl_delay
normal_discovery_delay = 50
DOCUMENT: NORMAL DISCOVERY DELAY
normal_exploit_delay = 20
DOCUMENT: NORMAL EXPLOITATION DELAY
normal_regen_time = 10000
DOCUMENT: NORMAL REGENERATION TIME 10000
regen_time = normal_regen_time*(1-res_basket_sw) + normal_regen_time*effect_of_shortage_on_reg_time*res_basket_sw
DOCUMENT: REGENERATION TIME
res_basket_sw = 1
res_coverage_time = 20
DOCUMENT: RESOURCE COVERAGE TIME
res_demand = exog_demand_f
DOCUMENT: RESOURCE DEMAND
time_to_smooth_av = 50
DOCUMENT: TIME TO SMOOTH RESOURCE AVAILABILITY
effect_of_av_on_discovery_relay = GRAPH(availability)
(0.00, 0.4), (0.5, 0.6), (1.00, 1.00), (1.50, 1.60), (2.00, 2.00)
DOCUMENT: EFFECT OF RESOURCE SHORTAGE ON DISCOVERY DELAY
effect_of_av_on_exp = GRAPH(availability)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.29), (0.4, 0.51), (0.6, 0.71), (0.8, 0.87), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.10), (1.40, 1.18), (1.60, 1.22), (1.80, 1.24), (2.00, 1.25)
DOCUMENT: EFFECT OF RESOURCE AVAILABILITY ON EXPENDITURE
effect_of_res_av_on_expl_delay = GRAPH(availability)
(0.00, 0.4), (0.5, 0.6), (1.00, 1.00), (1.50, 1.60), (2.00, 2.00)
DOCUMENT: EFFECT OF RESOURCE AVAILABILITY ON EXPLOITATION DELAY
effect_of_shortage_on_reg_time = GRAPH(availability)
(0.00, 0.01), (0.1, 0.05), (0.2, 0.095), (0.3, 0.16), (0.4, 0.23), (0.5, 0.315), (0.6, 0.42), (0.7, 0.54), (0.8, 0.665), (0.9, 0.815), (1, 1.00)
DOCUMENT: EFFECT OF RESOURCE SHORTAGE ON REGENERATION TIME
fr_reclassified = GRAPH(av_availability)
(0.00, 0.005), (0.1, 0.0033), (0.2, 0.0022), (0.3, 0.00143), (0.4, 0.000975), (0.5, 0.00065), (0.6, 0.000425), (0.7, 0.000275), (0.8, 0.00015), (0.9, 7.5e-05), (1, 0.00)
DOCUMENT: FRACTION SPENT RESOURCES RECLASSIFIED.0005 OR 0
fr_recycled = GRAPH(av_availability)
(0.00, 0.4), (0.1, 0.255), (0.2, 0.165), (0.3, 0.105), (0.4, 0.07), (0.5, 0.045), (0.6, 0.03), (0.7, 0.02), (0.8, 0.01), (0.9, 0.005), (1, 0.00)
DOCUMENT: FRACTION EXPENDED RESOURCES RECYCLED
Spent Resources
spent_res(t) = spent_res(t – dt) + (expenditure – reclassification – regeneration) * dt
INIT spent_res = initial_expenditure*normal_regen_time
DOCUMENT: SPENT RESOURCES
INFLOWS:
expenditure (IN SECTOR: usable resources)OUTFLOWS:
reclassification (IN SECTOR: exploitable resources)regeneration (IN SECTOR: potentially usable resources)
usable resources
usable_res(t) = usable_res(t – dt) + (exploitation – expenditure) * dt
INIT usable_res = initial_expenditure*res_coverage_time
DOCUMENT: USABLE RESOURCES
INFLOWS:
exploitation = exploitable_res/exploitation_delay
DOCUMENT: EXPLOITATION RATE
OUTFLOWS:
expenditure = res_demand*effect_of_av_on_exp/efficiency_of_use
DOCUMENT: EXPENDITURE RATE
av_expenditure = SMTH1(expenditure, time_to_smooth_av_exp)
DOCUMENT: AVERAGE EXPENDITURE RATE
time_to_smooth_av_exp = 5
DOCUMENT: TIME TO SMOOTH EXPENDITURE RATE
Not in a Sector
efficiency_of_use = 0.8
DOCUMENT: EFFICIENCY OF USE
plotted_variable = expenditure*plot_SW + (1-plot_SW)*res_demand
plot_SW = 0
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Saeed, K. (2013). Managing the Energy Basket in the Face of Limits. In: Qudrat-Ullah, H. (eds) Energy Policy Modeling in the 21st Century. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8606-0_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8606-0_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-8605-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-8606-0
eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)