Abstract
Renewable energy technologies (RETs) are essential for low-carbon energy, environment, and economic systems. The adoption of RETs has been facing a number of barriers and constraints due to the dynamic interaction between potential technology adopters, adopters, imitators, inhibitors, and the technology policies in place. However, the major challenge in modeling RET adoption is the existence of linguistic or fuzzy variables which often confront the decision maker. Linguistic and time-dependent variables lead to uncertainties in the impact of decisions taken. In this connection, the aim of this chapter is to develop a fuzzy system dynamics approach to improve the usefulness of energy policy system models characterized with linguistic variables. Complex dynamic interactions between technology adopters, imitators, inhibitors, policy makers, and energy policies are captured based on systems thinking. Based on a set of input policy parameters and variables, the behavior of RET adoption is investigated. Sensitivity experiments and further “what-if” experiments are conducted in this study. Useful managerial insights are drawn from the simulation results, relevant for policy makers concerned with RETs. Fuzzy logic and system dynamics methodologies are integrated from a systems perspective to model typical RET scenarios. It is anticipated that the methodology will be vital for real-world energy policy design and assessment in the twenty-first century.
Keywords
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Bass, F.: A new product growth model for consumer durables. Manage. Sci. 15(5), 215–227 (1969)
Barlas, Y.: Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 12(3), 183–210 (1996)
Cavusoglu, H., Hu, N., Li, Y., Ma, D.: Information technology diffusion with influentials, imitators, and opponents. 27(2), 305–334 (2010)
Chandrasekara, B., Tara, C.K.: An opinion survey based assessment of renewable energy technology development in India. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 11, 688–701 (2007)
Chen, Y.: Understanding technology adoption through system dynamics approach: a case study of RFID technology. Ninth IEEE/IFIP International Conference on Embedded and Ubiquitous Computing, 366–371 (2011)
Chen, F., Duic, N., Alves, L.M., Carvalho, M.G.: Renew islands-renewable energy policies for islands. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 11(8), 1888–1902 (2007)
Demiroren, A., Yilmaz, U.: Analysis of change in electric energy cost with using renewable energy sources in Gokceada, Turkey: an island example. Renew. Sust. Ener. Rev. 14, 323–333 (2010)
Ernest, F.B., Matthew, A.B.: Feasibility of solar technology (photovoltaic) adoption- a case study on Tennessee’s poultry industry. Renew. Energ. 34, 748–54 (2009)
EIA.: Annual Energy Outlook. Government Printing Office, Energy Information Administration. (2009)
Forrester, J.: Industrial dynamics. Pegasus Communications, Waltham (1961)
Ford, J.W.: System dynamics and the electric power industry. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 13(1), 57–85 (1997)
Han, J., Hayashi, Y.: A system dynamics model of CO2 mitigation in China’s inter-city passenger transport. Transport. Res. D.: Tr. E. 13(5), 298–305 (2008)
Huang, L.M.: Financing rural renewable energy: a comparison between China and India. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 13(5), 1096–1103 (2009)
Jin, W., Xu, L., Yang, Z.: Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: incorporating system dynamics into the ecological footprint. Ecol. Econ. 68(12), 2938–2949 (2009)
John, B., Bo, S., William, W.: The economics of sustainable energy for rural development: a study of renewable energy in rural China. Energ. Policy 26, 45–54 (1998)
Kikuchi, S.: Study of transportation and uncertainty. Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis, vol. 20. In: Attoh-Okine, N.O., Ayyub, B.M. (eds.) pp. 303–319. Springer US. (2005)
Kosko, B.: Fuzzy systems as universal fuzzy approximation. In: Proceedings of the first IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, 1153–1162 (1992a)
Kosko, B.: Neural networks and fuzzy systems. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs (1992b)
Kosko, B.: Fuzzy thinking. Harpner Collins, London (1994)
Kosko, B.:Combining fuzzy systems. IEEE FUZZ-95, March, Yokohama, Japan (1995)
Krushna, M., Leif, G.: An adopter-centric approach to analyze the diffusion patterns of innovative residential heating systems in Sweden. Energ. Policy 36, 577–9 (2008)
Labibi, A.W., Williams, G.B., O’Conor, R.F.: An intelligent maintenance model system: An application of the analytic hierarchy process and a fuzzy logic rule-based controller. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 49, 745–757
Levary, R.: Systems dynamics with fuzzy-logic. Int. J. Sys. Sci. 21(8), 1701–1707 (1990)
Li, J.F., Zhu, L., Hu, R.Q.: Policy analysis of the barriers to renewable energy development in the People’s Republic of China. Energy Sus. Dev. 6, 11–20 (2009)
Mamdani, E.H., Assilian, S.: An experiment in linguistic synthesis with a fuzzy logic controller. Int. J. Man-Machine Stud. 7(1), 1–13 (1975)
Meadows, D.H.: Limits to growth: the 30-year update. Chelsea Green Publishing Company, USA (2004)
Morecroft, J.D.W.: Strategic modeling and business dynamics: a feedback systems approach. Wiley, Chichester (2007)
Mutingi, M. (2012). Dynamic simulation for effective workforce management in new product development. Manag. Sci. Lett. 2, 2571–2580 (2012)
Mutingi, M., Mbohwa, C.: Fuzzy system dynamics simulation for manufacturing supply chain systems with uncertain demand CIE42 Proceedings of the International Conference on Computers and Industrial Engineering, South Africa, 1–12 (2012)
Mutingi, M., Matope, S.: System dynamics of renewable energy technology adoption. IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology, South Africa (forthcoming) (2013)
Naill, R.: A system dynamics model for national energy policy planning. Sys. Dynam. Rev. 8(1), 1–19 (1992)
Peter, W.: Biogas production: current state and perspectives. Appl. Microbiol. Biot. 85, 849–60 (2010)
Qudrat-Ullah, H.: MDESRAP: a model for understanding the dynamics of electricity supply, resources, and pollution. Int. J. Glob. Energy. Issue 23(1), 1–4 (2005)
Qudrat-Ullah, H., Davidsen, P.I.: Understanding the dynamics of electricity supply, resources and pollution: Pakistan’s case. Energy 26, 595–606 (2001)
Qudrat-Ullah, H., Seong, B.S.: How to do structural validity of a system dynamics type simulation model: The case of an energy policy model. Energ. Policy 38, 2216–2224 (2010)
Raja, P., Laurence, D., Vasanthi, M.P.: Adoption of photovoltaic power supply systems: a study of key determinants in India. Renew. Energ. 31, 2272–83 (2006)
Reddi, K.R., Moon, Y.B.: System dynamics modeling of engineering change management in a collaborative environment. Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Tech. 55, 1255–1239 (2011)
Retortillo, P., Mediavilla, M., Miguel, L.J., Castro, C.: An attempt to automate the analysis of complex system dynamics models: an example of WORLD 3. Proceedings of the 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Athens, Greece (2008)
Rodrigues, L.L.R., Dharmaraj, N.: System dynamics approach for change management in new product development. Manag. Res. News 29(8), 512–523 (2006)
Roger, F., Naill, R., Belanger, S., Klinger, A., Petersen, E.: An analysis of the cost effectiveness of U.S. energy policies to mitigate global warming. Sys. Dynam. Rev. 8(2), 111–128 (1990)
Rogers, E.: Diffusion of innovation. Free Press, New York (1995)
Rogers, E.M.: Diffusion of innovations. Free Press, New York (2003)
Saysel, A. K., Barlas, Y.: Model simplification and validation testing. Sys. Dynam. Rev. 22(3), 241–262 (2006)
Sterman, J.D.: Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston (2004)
Sugeno, M.: Industrial applications of fuzzy control. Elsevier Science Pub. Co. (1985)
Tessem, B., Davidsen, P.I.: Fuzzy system dynamics: an approach to vague and qualitative variables in simulation. Sys. Dynam. Rev. 10(1), 49–62 (1994)
Trappey, A., Trappey, C., Hsiao, C.T., Ou, J., Chang, C.T.: System dynamics modeling of product carbon footprint life cycles for collaborative green supply chains. Int. J. Comp. Integ. M. 25(10), 934–945 (2011)
Trappey, A.J.C., Trappey, C., Hsiao, C.T., Ou, J.J.R., Li, S.J., Chen, K.W.P.: An evaluation model for low carbon island policy: the case of Taiwan’s green transportation policy. Energ. Policy 45, 510–515 (2012)
Uemura, Y., Kai, T., Natori, R., Takahashi, T., Hatate, Y., Yoshida, M.: Potential of renewable energy sources and its applications in Yakashima Island. Renew. Energ. 29, 581–91 (2003)
Van den Bulte, C., Joshi, Y.V.: New product diffusion with influentials and imitators. Market. Sci. 26(3), 400–421 (2007)
Vicki, G., Tomas, M.K.: Breaking the cycle producer and consumer perspectives on the non-adoption of passive solar housing in the US. Energ. Policy 36, 551–66 (2008)
Wang, J., Lu, H., Peng, H.: System dynamics model of urban transportation system and its application. J. Transport. Sys. Engg. Info. Tech. 8(3), 83–89 (2008)
Wong, R., Sheng, S.Y.: Business application of the system dynamics approach: word-of-mouth and its effect in an online environment. Tech. Innov. Manage. Rev. (2012)
Zadeh, L.: A fuzzy sets. Inf. Control 8, 338–353 (1965)
Zadeh, L.A.: Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility. Fuzzy. Set. Syst. 1, 3–28 (1978)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Mutingi, M. (2013). Adoption of Renewable Energy Technologies: A Fuzzy System Dynamics Perspective. In: Qudrat-Ullah, H. (eds) Energy Policy Modeling in the 21st Century. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8606-0_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8606-0_10
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-8605-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-8606-0
eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)