Forecasting the Resurgence of the U. S. Economy in 2001: An Expert Judgment Approach

Chapter
Part of the International Series in Operations Research & Management Science book series (ISOR, volume 195)

Abstract

Building on work done earlier this chapter illustrates our use of the Analytic Hierarchy/Network Process to produce a December 2008 forecast of when the U.S. economy would begin to recover from the contraction that, according to an announcement dated December 1, 2008, from the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), began during the month of December, 2007. Here we illustrate two approaches.

Keywords

Amid Income OECD Hedging 

References

  1. Akerlof, George and Robert Shiller (2009). Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  2. Azis, Iwan J (2009). Crisis, Complexity and Conflict, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.Google Scholar
  3. Belsky, E., & Prakken, J. (2004). Housing wealth effects: Housing’s impact on wealth accumulation, wealth distribution and consumer spending. Joint Center for Housing Studies’ Report of a study commissioned and supported by the National Association of Realtors, Harvard University (W04–13). Cambridge, MA: National Center for Real Estate Research.Google Scholar
  4. Blair, A.R., Nachtmann, R. and Saaty, T.L., “Incorporating Expert Judgment in Economic Forecasts: The Case of the U.S. Economy in 1992,” Chapter 12 in the book: Saaty, T.L. and L.G. Vargas, Models, Methods, Concepts and Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Kluwer Academic Publishers, London, 2001.Google Scholar
  5. Blair, A.R., Nachtmann, R., Saaty, T.L. and Whitaker, R., “Forecasting the Resurgence of the US Economy in 2001: An Expert Judgment Approach,” Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 36, 2002, pp. 77–91, and also Chapter 2 in Saaty, T.L. and L.G. Vargas, Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process: Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks, Springer, New York, 2006.Google Scholar
  6. Greenspan, A. (2003, March 4). Remarks at the annual convention of the Independent Community Bankers of America, Orlando, Florida (via satellite).Google Scholar
  7. Hilsenrath, Jon E., “Despite Job Losses, the Recession is Finally Declared Officially Over,” The Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2003.Google Scholar
  8. National Bureau of Economic Research, Business Cycle Dating Committee, “Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity,” Dec. 1, 2008, NBER web site (www.nber.org).
  9. National Bureau of Economic Research, “Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions,” NBER web site (www.nber.org).
  10. National Bureau of Economic Research, no title, link “announcement of business cycle trough/end of last recession,” July 17, 2003, NBER web site (www.nber.org).
  11. NBER (2008b). Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity, in http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html.
  12. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, “Economic Outlook No. 84,” November 2008, web site (www.oecd.org).
  13. Roubini, N., & Menegatti, C. (2007, March). The US housing recession is still far from bottoming out. RGE Monitor, pp. 1–22.Google Scholar
  14. Saaty, T. L. (1996). Fundamentals of decision making and priority theory with the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publication.Google Scholar
  15. Saaty, T.L. (2001). Decision making with dependence and feedback: The Analytic Network Process. Pittsburgh: RWS Publication.Google Scholar
  16. Saaty, T.L., Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA, 2005.Google Scholar
  17. Saaty, T.L., Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA, 2006.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Katz Graduate School of Business, College of Business AdministrationUniversity of PittsburghPittsburghUSA

Personalised recommendations