Robust Model Calibration with Load Uncertainties

Abstract

The goal of this work is to propose a model calibration strategy for an industrial problem consisting in a MW class geared wind turbine power train subjected to uncertain loads. Lack of knowledge is commonplace in this kind of engineering system and a realistic model calibration cannot be performed without taking into account this type of uncertainty. The question at stake in this study is how to perform a robust predictive model of a dynamic system given that the excitations are poorly known. The uncertainty in the latter will be represented with an info-gap model. The tradeoff between fidelity to data and robustness to uncertainty is then investigated in order to maximize the robustness of the prediction error at a given horizon of uncertainty. This methodology is illustrated on a simple academic model and on a more complex engineering system representing a wind turbine geared power train.