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Impacts of Natural Resource-Led Development on the Mekong Energy System

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The Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Mekong Region

Abstract

How might mainstream hydropower dams, irrigation, sea-level rise, upland rubber, enhanced rail connectivity, and smelting aluminium affect the energy system of mainland Southeast Asia? Upon considering impacts, what implications emerge for sustainable natural resource and infrastructural development? This chapter describes the Mekong Region’s energy system, focusing on how six sets of potential changes introduced in Chap. 1 may impact on it. We approach the energy system through eight dimensions: energy metabolism, governance, availability, access, affordability, long-term sustainability of supply, resilience, and environmental sustainability. The analysis identifies possible impacts of each of the six potential developments on the system, individually as well as cumulatively.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    ASEAN’s only other net oil exporters are Brunei and Malaysia. By 2030, only Brunei remains a net exporter. ASEAN oil production has been declining since 2000. By the year 2030, ASEAN oil imports as a fraction of total consumption may reach 74% (IEA 2009: 550).

  2. 2.

    This is the modelers’ ‘Low’ case defined before the global financial crisis, equating to a 6% p.a. increase in useful energy demand (IRM 2008:53).

  3. 3.

    In the United States, participation in the affairs of energy organizations occurred as a response to crisis in public utility financing, in the wake of the first and second oil crises.

  4. 4.

    ,and the vast majority of the power generated would be exported to Thailand and Vietnam.

  5. 5.

    These estimates overstate actual impacts because they include (for consistency) maintenance energy requirements for the entire lifecycle of each technology. However in the case of Itaipu dam including 10 vs. 100 years of maintenance requirements lowers PJ input/MW by only 15%.

  6. 6.

    This assumes that the IRM model has not accounted for such synergies.

  7. 7.

    Yields per ha could also increase. While Thailand’s cassava per ha yields are among the highest in the region, and better than the rest of Asia, its sugar cane yields are less than other producing regions (Malik 2009; Takeshita 2009).

  8. 8.

    Calculated using the energy balance (EnB) approach: based on comparative fuel economy values, 1 L of ethanol substitutes for 0.89 L of combustion gasoline (CG). One L of CG has 38.7 MJ of primary energy. The result of 31.5 MJ/L net avoided fossil energy is equal to (0.89 × 38.7), less 2.93 MJ/L net fossil energy inputs to ethanol production (Nguyen et al. 2007: Table 6, Scenario 3).

  9. 9.

    The effects of 100 cm rise would be severe for the Mekong and Chao Phraya Delta, and also extend to energy plant concentrated on Thailand’s Eastern Seaboard (Gulf of Thailand). Strategic energy hubs beyond the region (Singapore) and other coastal cities would also be vulnerable.

  10. 10.

    Beyond the time scale of this assessment land use change to monocultural rubber could contribute to increased sediment input to reservoirs (Johnston et al. 2010), lowering energy production and raising costs marginally.

  11. 11.

    In 2001, this 778 line carried approximately 4.55 × 109 t-km of traffic, slightly less than one third of the traffic estimated for GMS Route 1 in 2014, its first feasible year of operation.

  12. 12.

    Doing so would yield a more precise answer but would also require more detailed information on traffic shifted to rail from each mode.

  13. 13.

    In the sense that their designed plant discharge (m3/s) matches mean high season flow values under the MRC 20-year development scenario for the relevant reach of the river.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Canberra, Australia

    Tira Foran

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  1. Tira Foran
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  1. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Townsville, QLD, Australia

    Alexander Smajgl  & John Ward  & 

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Foran, T. (2013). Impacts of Natural Resource-Led Development on the Mekong Energy System. In: Smajgl, A., Ward, J. (eds) The Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Mekong Region. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-6120-3_4

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