Data-based Computational Approaches to Forecasting Political Violence

  • Philip A. Schrodt
  • James Yonamine
  • Benjamin E. Bagozzi


The challenge of terrorism dates back centuries if not millennia. Until recently, the basic approaches to analyzing terrorism—historical analogy and monitoring the contemporary words and deeds of potential perpetrators—have changed little: the Roman authorities warily observing the Zealots in first-century Jerusalem could have easily traded places with the Roman authorities combatting the Red Brigades in twentieth century Italy.


Gross Domestic Product Hide Markov Model Linear Discriminant Analysis Social Network Analysis Latent Dirichlet Allocation 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



This research was supported in part by a grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation, SES-1004414, and by a Fulbright-Hays Research Fellowship for work by Schrodt at the Peace Research Institute, Oslo (


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Philip A. Schrodt
    • 1
  • James Yonamine
    • 1
  • Benjamin E. Bagozzi
    • 1
  1. 1.Political SciencePennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkUSA

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