Abstract
Foresight and other forward-looking activities like scenarios, future modelling and planning all play an important role in anticipating future developments. Where appropriate, they are used not only to examine future options but also to shape developments more to our common will. On many occasions, these forward-looking activities fail, however, to anticipate what is referred to as ‘high-impact’ new emerging issues and wild cards because of their high unpredictability and uncertainty. Therefore, many countries have organized horizon-scanning activities that focus on the identification of high-impact issues and wild cards and their accompanying signals, in order to support more resilient policymaking. In 2007, an attempt was made to align and compare the results of the national horizon scans from three countries (Van Rij 2010); in these scans, the concepts of (new) emerging issues, wild cards and weak signals were used frequently.
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Notes
- 1.
‘Horizon scanning’ is the systematic examination of potential (future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals.
- 2.
Interpreted within the context of a vast body of natural scientific knowledge
- 3.
During the silent memorial service for the victims of World War II on the Dam Square in Amsterdam in 2010, crowds of people were gathered for the traditional 2 min of total silence. During this period, some person started to shout some obscenities, which drew the attention of some security officers who wanted to remove the person. Because of the local commotion, a fence collapsed with a loud bang, and a lady in the audience panicked and screamed loudly out of sheer terror. The majority of the people present at the memorial service reacted with a stampede, causing many casualties. The combined signals of the loud bang of the fence and the scream of fear provide an example of a societal signal preluding, and even causing, an event with potential high impact, which in itself was completely emotional.
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van Rij, V. (2013). New Emerging Issues and Wild Cards as Future Shakers and Shapers. In: Giaoutzi, M., Sapio, B. (eds) Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies. Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems, vol 1. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_5
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