Getting Started

Abstract

This chapter provides a general introduction to forecasting criminal behavior in criminal justice settings. Criminal justice forecasting is a tool that has been used by decision-makers since at least the 1920s. Over time, statistical methods have replaced clinical methods, leading to improvements in forecasting accuracy. The gains were at best gradual until recently, when the increasing availability of very large datasets, powerful computers, and new statistical procedures began to produce dramatic improvements. It is important to note that criminal justice forecasting is inextricably linked to stakeholder decision-making. As such, there are always political considerations, ethical complexities, and judgement calls for which there can be no technical fix.