Abstract
The issue about performance prediction is the need of a well representative model which can be analytical or mathematical due to non-availability of the future data. Analytical or mathematical models can be identified with the help of current data coming from structural health monitoring (SHM) systems and these models can be used for future performance predictions by incorporating uncertainties coming from modeling and monitoring data. In this study, a well calibrated finite element model (FEM) of a real life structure, which is accepted as the parent model of the family models, is introduced. Based on this model, offspring models, which include the modeling and measurement uncertainties are generated. In the offspring generation process uncertainties such as boundary conditions, loads, geometric and mechanical properties of the elements are defined with distributions. After the generation process, offspring models are analyzed and set of results are obtained for a family of models. These results are used for structural reliability calculations in the performance prediction part of the paper. At this point, the other important considerations such as system model definition and correlation of the components for the system reliability approach are also taken into account. Finally, future performances in the case of instantaneous or continuous structural changes are considered for structural system reliability prediction, which is critical for decision making about future performance of the structure, by incorporating uncertainties from measurement through modeling on the movable bridge.
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Abbreviations
- C(t):
-
Corrosion penetration rate
- A:
-
Statistical random variable
- B:
-
Statistical random variable
- Δ increase :
-
Expected 75 year maximum traffic load
- μtraffic :
-
Mean of the current traffic load
- σtraffic :
-
Standard deviation of the current traffic load
- g:
-
Limit state function
- εyield :
-
Yielding strain
- εoffspring_DeadLoad :
-
Dead load strain coming from offspring models
- εoffspring_TrafficLoad :
-
Traffic load strain coming from offspring models
- εSHM_TrafficLoad :
-
Traffic load strain coming from SHM data
- εSHM_TempCycle :
-
Temperature induced strain coming from SHM data
- RTA:
-
River transit bus
- FT:
-
Fire truck
- EN:
-
East North
- WS:
-
West South
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Acknowledgements
The research project described in this paper is supported by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) Contract # BD548/RPWO 23 and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Cooperative Agreement Award DTFH61-07-H-00040. The authors would like to thank Mr. Marcus Ansley, P.E., the Head of Structures Research at FDOT for his support and guidance throughout the project. The writers also greatly appreciate the valuable feedback provided by Mr. Alberto Sardinas at FDOT District 4, who has shared his experience. The authors would like to express their profound gratitude to Dr. Hamid Ghasemi of FHWA for his support of this research. The support of both agencies and their engineers is greatly recognized and appreciated. The authors would also like to acknowledge the following for their contributions of several other colleagues and students. The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring organizations.
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© 2012 The Society for Experimental Mechanics, Inc. 2012
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Gokce, H.B., Catbas, F.N., Frangopol, D.M. (2012). Use of Family of Models for Performance Predictions and Decision Making. In: Caicedo, J., Catbas, F., Cunha, A., Racic, V., Reynolds, P., Salyards, K. (eds) Topics on the Dynamics of Civil Structures, Volume 1. Conference Proceedings of the Society for Experimental Mechanics Series. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-2413-0_42
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-2413-0_42
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