Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Eliciting Expert Knowledge of Ecosystem Vulnerability to Human Stressors to Support Comprehensive Ocean Management

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology

Abstract

More than 38% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coast, and the coastal zone is becoming more heavily populated each year (Small and Cohen 2004). More and more human activities depend upon and compete for coastal and marine ecosystem goods and services. This intensification of use is necessitating a shift toward more comprehensive and integrated approaches to management – a shift that is already underway via approaches such as ecosystem-based management and ocean zoning (Day 2002; McLeod et al. 2005; Crowder et al. 2006; Douvere et al. 2007; Douvere 2008; Office of the President 2010). Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, understanding the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses and associated stressors on marine ecosystems can be very challenging. Little empirical data is available to weigh the relative vulnerability of the range of ecosystem types to the full set of human stressors (Halpern et al.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Aspinall W (2010)  A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463:294–295

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Beazley KF, Baldwin ED, Reining C (2010) Integrating expert judgment into systematic ecoregional conservation planning. In: Trombulak SC, Baldwin RF (eds) Landscape-scale conservation planning. Springer Science+Business Media, New York, pp 235–255

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Bryant D, Burke L, McManus J, Spalding M (1998) Reefs at risk: A map-based indicator of threats to the world’s coral reefs. World Resources Institute, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Burgman MA (2001) Flaws in subjective assessments of ecological risks and means for correcting them. Austral J Environ Manage 8:219–226

    Google Scholar 

  • Burke L, Selig E, Spalding M (2002) Reefs at risk in Southeast Asia. World Resources Institute, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, RM (2009) Obtaining distributions from groups for decisions under uncertainty. In: Williams TM, Samset K, Sunnevag KJ (eds) Making essential choices with scant information: front-end decision making in major projects. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp 257–274

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooke RM, Goossens LHJ (2004) Expert judgement elicitation for risk assessments of critical infrastructures. J Risk Res 7:643–656

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crowder LB, Osherenko G, Young OR et al (2006) Sustainability: resolving mismatches in U.S. ocean governance. Science 313:617–618

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Day JC (2002) Zoning – lessons from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Ocean Coast Manage 45:139–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douvere F (2008) The importance of marine spatial planning in advancing ecosystem-based sea use management. Mar Policy 32:762–771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douvere F, Maes F, Vanhulle A, Schrijvers J (2007) The role of marine spatial planning in sea use management: the Belgian case. Mar Policy 31:182–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehler C, Douvere F (2009) Marine spatial planning: A step-by-step approach toward ecosystem-based management. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and Man and the Biosphere Programme, UNESCO, Paris. IOC Manual and Guides No. 53, ICAM Dossier No. 6

    Google Scholar 

  • Goodman LA (1961) Snowball sampling. Ann Math Stat 32:148–170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halpern BS, McLeod KL, Rosenberg AA, Crowder LB (2008a) Managing for cumulative impacts in ecosystem-based management through ocean zoning. Ocean Coast Manage 51:203–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halpern BS, Walbridge S, Selkoe KA, Kappel CV et al (2008b) A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science 319:948–952

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Halpern BS, Selkoe KA, Micheli F, Kappel CV (2007) Evaluating and ranking the vulnerability of global marine ecosystems to anthropogenic threats. Conserv Biol 21:1301–1315

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Halpern BS, Kappel CV, Selkoe KA, Micheli F, Ebert C, Kontgis F, Crain C, Martone MRG, Shearer C, Teck S (2009) Mapping cumulative human impacts to California Current marine ecosystems. Conserv Lett 2:138–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johannes RE, Freeman MMR, Hamilton RJ (2008) Ignore fishers’ knowledge and miss the boat. Fish Fisheries 1:257–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kappel CV (2005) Losing pieces of the puzzle: Threats to marine, estuarine, and diadromous species. Front Ecol Environ 3:275–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keeney RL, Raiffa H (1993) Decisions with multiple objectives: Preferences and value tradeoffs. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Keith DA (1998) An evaluation and modification of World Conservation Union Red List criteria for classification of extinction risk in vascular plants. Conserv Biol 12:1076–1090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kraan, BCP, Bedford TJ (2005) Probabilistic inversion of expert judgements in the quantification of model uncertainty. Manage Sci 51:995–1006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kurowicka D, Bucura C, Cooke RM, Havelaar A (2010) Probabilistic inversion in priority setting of emerging zoonoses. Risk Anal 30:715–723

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kurowicka D, Cooke RM (2006) Uncertainty analysis with high dimensional dependence modelling. Wiley, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Leslie HM, McLeod KL (2007) Confronting the challenges of implementing marine ecosystem-based management. Front Ecol Environ 5:540–548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mace GM, Lande R (1991) Assessing extinction threats: toward a reevaluation of IUCN threatened species categories. Conserv Biol 5:148–157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Master LL (1991) Assessing threats and setting priorities for conservation. Conserv Biol 5:559–563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLeod KL, Lubchenco J, Palumbi SR, Rosenberg AA (2005) Scientific consensus statement on marine ecosystem-based management. Communication Partnership for Science and the Sea, Washington. Available from http://www.compassonline.org/science/EBM_CMSP/EBMconsensus (accessed February 2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • Meyer MA (2001) Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: a practical guide. Society for Industrial and Applied Math, Philadelphia

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being. Island Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Murray G, Neis B, Johnsen JP (2006) Lessons learned from reconstructing interactions between local ecological knowledge, fisheries science, and fisheries management in the commercial fisheries of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Hum Ecol 34:549–571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neslo REJ, Micheli F, Kappel CV et al (2008) Modeling stakeholder preferences with probabilistic inversion: application to prioritizing marine ecosystem vulnerabilities. In: Linkov I, Ferguson E, Magar VS (eds) Real-time and deliberative decision making. Springer, Dordrecht, NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson E, Keith DA, Wilcove DS (2009) Assessing the threat status of ecological communities. Conserv Biol 23:259–274

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Noble BF (2004) Strategic environmental assessment quality assurance: evaluating and improving the consistency of judgments in assessment panels. Environ Impact Assess 24:3–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noss RF, Carroll C, Vance-Borland K et al (2002) A multicriteria assessment of the irreplaceability and vulnerability of sites in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Conserv Biol 16:895–908

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Office of the President (2010) Stewardship of the oceans, our coasts, and the Great Lakes. 75 Federal Register 43023, FR Doc. 2010–18169 (Executive Order, 22 July 2010)

    Google Scholar 

  • Plous S (1993) The psychology of judgment and decision making, McGraw-Hill Inc., New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Regan TJ, Master LL, Hammerson GA (2004) Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using NatureServe conservation status ranks. Acta Oecol 26:95–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roberts CM (2002) Marine biodiversity hotspots and conservation priorities for tropical reefs. Science 295:1280–1284

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rush C, Roy R (2001) Expert judgement in cost estimating: modelling the reasoning approach. Concurrent Engin-Res A 9:271–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Selkoe KA, Halpern BS, Ebert CM et al (2009) A map of human impacts to a “pristine” coral reef ecosystem, the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. Coral Reefs 28:635–650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Small C, Cohen JE (2004) Continental physiography, climate, and the global distribution of human population. Curr Anthropol 45:269–277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • St Martin K, McCay BJ, Murray GD, Johnson TR (2007) Communities, knowledge and fisheries of the future. Int J Global Environ 7:221–239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teck SJ, Halpern BS, Kappel CV et al (2010) Using expert judgment to estimate marine ecosystem vulnerability in the California Current. Ecol Appl 20:1402–1416

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Tran LT, Knight CG, O’Neill RV et al (2002) Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region 1. Environ Manage 29:845–859

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Tversky A, Kahneman D (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. In: Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A (eds) Judgment under uncertainty. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Vié JC, Hilton-Taylor C, Stuart SN (2009) Wildlife in a changing world: An analysis of the 2008 IUCN Red List of threatened species. World Conservation Union, Gland

    Google Scholar 

  • Wickham JD (1999) Environmental auditing: an integrated environmental assessment of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. Environ Manage 24:553–560

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Wilcove DS, Rothstein D, Dubow J et al (1998) Quantifying threats to imperiled species in the United States. BioScience 48:607–615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson K, Pressey RL, Newton A et al (2005) Measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning. Environ Manage 35:527–543

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Santa Barbara, CA, 93101, USA

    Carrie V. Kappel, Benjamin S. Halpern & Kimberly A. Selkoe

  2. Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street NW, Washington, DC, 20036-1400, USA

    Roger M. Cooke

Authors
  1. Carrie V. Kappel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Benjamin S. Halpern
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kimberly A. Selkoe
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Roger M. Cooke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Carrie V. Kappel .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Ontario Forest Research Institute, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Queen St. East 1235, Sault Ste. Marie, P6A 2E5, Ontario, Canada

    Ajith H. Perera

  2. Dept. Zoology, Biodiversity & Spatial Information Ctr., North Carolina State University, Raleigh, 27695, North Carolina, USA

    C. Ashton Drew

  3. Fac. Natural Resources &, Environmental Studies, University of Northern British Columbia, University Way 3333, Prince George, V2N 4Z9, British Columbia, Canada

    Chris J. Johnson

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kappel, C.V., Halpern, B.S., Selkoe, K.A., Cooke, R.M. (2012). Eliciting Expert Knowledge of Ecosystem Vulnerability to Human Stressors to Support Comprehensive Ocean Management. In: Perera, A., Drew, C., Johnson, C. (eds) Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-1034-8_13

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation