Skip to main content

Quantitative Analysis of Sports

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Behavioral Sport Psychology

Abstract

In 2003, Michael C. Lewis published the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, detailing Billy Beane’s (the general manager of the Oakland Athletics Major League Baseball [MLB] team) contemporary use of advanced statistical methods to draft or select players and to devise strategic approaches to game play in hope of launching the team into the competitive echelon of the MLB, despite the numerous odds against them. To the novice reader or sports enthusiast, this simple description seems an endearing tale of an underdog’s success, and rightly so – the Oakland Athletic’s, with a salary budget of only $41 million, competed against teams with much higher salaries, such as the New York Yankees with $200 million to spend on its players. Transcending beyond this “triumph over adversity” tale, however, Lewis’s Moneyball has become a panacea for analytically maximizing outcomes from an economic approach.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 79.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 99.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 139.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    The application of advanced statistical analyses in basketball has been termed APBRmetrics, after the Association for Professional Basketball Researcher (see http://www.apbr.org). In football, analysts simply borrow the term sabermetrics (e.g., Campos & Chait, 2004), despite its origin from baseball.

References

  • Alamar, B. (2005). A first step. Journal of quantitative analysis in sports, 1, 1–3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alferink, L. A., Critchfield, T. S., Hitt, J. L., & Higgins, W. J. (2009). Generality of the matching law as a descriptor of shot selection in basketball. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 42, 595–608.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Baer, D. M., Wolf, M. M., & Risley, T. R. (1968). Some current dimensions of applied behavior analysis. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 1, 91–97.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Baum, W. M. (1974). On two types of deviation from the matching law: Bias and undermatching. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 22, 231–242.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Baxamusa, S. (2010, March 11). State of sabermetrics: Insights from the 2010 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The Hardball Times. Retrieved from http://www.hardballtimes.com/

  • Billington, E., & DiTommaso, N. M. (2003). Demonstrations and applications of the matching law in education. Journal of Behavioral Education, 12, 91–104.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borrero, J. C., Crisolo, S. S., Tu, Q., Rieland, W. A., Ross, N. A., Francisco, M. T., et al. (2007). An application of the matching law to social dynamics. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 40, 589–601.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Bradbury, J. C. (2007). The baseball economist: The real game exposed. New York: Plume.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bulow, P. J., & Meller, P. J. (1998). Predicting teenage girls’ sexual activity and contraception use: An application of the matching law. Journal of Community Psychology, 26, 581–596.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campos, P., & Chait, J. (2004, December 12). Sabermetrics for football. The New York Times Magazine. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com

  • Conger, R., & Killeen, P. (1974). Use of concurrent operants in small group research: A demonstration. Pacific Sociological Review, 17, 399–416.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook, E. (1964). Percentage baseball. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davison, M., & McCarthy, D. (1988). The matching law: A research review. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Deford, F. (1964, March 23). Baseball is played all wrong. Sports Illustrated, 20(12), 14–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • D’Angelo, T. (2006, June 8). Cuban a unique NBA owner. The Palm Beach Post. Retrieved from http://www.palmbeachpost.com.

  • Easterbrook, G. (2007, November 15). New annual feature! State of high school nation [Internet posting]. Retrieved from http://www.espn.com.

  • Grabiner, D. (n.d.). The sabermetric manifesto. Retrieved from http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/manifesto.html

  • Heller, O. (2010, January 20). Sabermetrics and new statistics in baseball: Moneyball, Billy Beane and using statistical analysis to find talent [Web log post]. Retrieved from fttp://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/sabermetrics

    Google Scholar 

  • Herrnstein, R. J. (1961). Relative and absolute strength of response as a function of frequency of reinforcement. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 4, 267–272.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Herrnstein, R. J., Rachlin, R., & Laibson, D. I. (1996). The matching law: Papers in psychology and economics. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hitt, J. L., Alferink, L. A., Critchfield, T. S., & Wagman, J. B. (2007). Choice behavior expressed in elite sport competition: Predicting shot selection and game outcomes in college basketball. In L. A. Chiang (Ed.), Motivation of exercise and physical activity (pp. 79–91). Hauppauge, NY: Nova Science.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hruby, P. (2004, April 13). Numbers game. The Washington Times. Retrieved from http://www.washingtontimes.com.

  • Hull, C. L. (1943). Principles of behavior: An introduction to behavior theory. Oxford: Appleton-Century.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hursh, S. R., Raslear, T. G., Shurtleff, D., Bauman, R., & Simmons, L. (1988). A cost-benefit analysis of demand for food. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 50, 419–440.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, M. (2003). Moneyball: The art of winning an unfair game. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindsley, O. R. (1991). From technological jargon to plain English for application. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 24, 449–458.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Mace, F. C., Lalli, J. S., Shea, M. C., & Nevin, J. A. (1992). Behavioral momentum in college basketball. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 25, 657–663.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Madden, G. J., & Bickel, W. K. (Eds.) (2010). Impulsivity: The behavioral and neurological science of discounting. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Madden, G. J., & Johnson, P. S. (2010). A delay-discounting primer. In G. J. Madden & W. K. Bickel (Eds.), Impulsivity: The behavioral and neurological science of discounting (pp. 11–37). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Marr, M. J. (1989). Some remarks on the quantitative analysis of behavior. The Behavior Analyst, 12, 143–151.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mazur, J. E. (2006). Mathematical models and the experimental analysis of behavior. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 85, 275–291.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • McDowell, J. J. (1988). Matching theory in natural human environments. The Behavior Analyst, 11, 95–109.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myerson, J., & Green, L. (1995). Discounting of delayed rewards: Models of individual choice. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 64, 263–276.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Myerson, J., Green, L., & Warusawitharana, M. (2001). Area under the curve as a measure of discounting. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 76, 235–243.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Nevin, J. A. (1988). Behavioral momentum and the partial reinforcement effect. Psychological Bulletin, 103, 44–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nevin, J. A. (2008). Control, prediction, order, and the joys of research. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 89, 119–123.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Neyer, R. (2002, November 6). Sabermetricians slowly being added to the inner circle. [Internet posting]. Retrieved from http://www.espn.com.

  • Reed, D. D. (2009). Using Microsoft Office Excel® 2007 to conduct generalized matching analyses. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 42, 867–875.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Reed, D. D., Critchfield, T. S., & Martens, B. K. (2006). The generalized matching law in elite sport competition: Football play calling as operant choice. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 39, 281–297.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Reed, D. D., & Martens, B. K. (2008). Effects of task difficulty on children’s relative problem completion rates according to the generalized matching law. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 41, 39–52.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Roane, H. S., Kelley, M. E., Trosclair, N. M., & Hauer, L. S. (2004). Behavioral momentum in sports: A partial replication with women’s basketball. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 37, 385–390.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Romanowich, P., Bourret, J., & Vollmer, T. R. (2007). Further analysis of the matching law to describe two- and three-point shot selection by professional basketball players. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 40, 311–315.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Schwarz, A. (2005). The numbers game: Baseball’s lifelong fascination with statistics. New York: Thomas Dunne Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shull, R. L. (1991). Mathematical description of operant behavior: An introduction. In I. H. Iversen & K. A. Lattal (Eds.), Experimental analysis of behavior, Part 2 (pp. 243–282). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skinner, B. F. (1953). Science and human behavior. New York: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stilling, S. T., & Critchfield, T. S. (2010). The matching relation and situation specific bias modulation in professional football play selection. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 93, 435–452.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Van Houten, R., Axelrod, S., Bailey, J. S., Favell, J. E., Foxx, R. M., Iwata, B. A., et al. (1988). The right to effective behavioral treatment. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 21, 381–384.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Vollmer, T. R., & Bourret, J. (2000). An application of the matching law to evaluate the allocation of two- and three-point shots by college basketball players. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 33, 137–150.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Winston, W. L. (2009). Mathletics: How gamblers, managers, and sports enthusiasts use mathematics in baseball, basketball, and football. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Derek D. Reed .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Reed, D.D. (2011). Quantitative Analysis of Sports. In: Luiselli, J., Reed, D. (eds) Behavioral Sport Psychology. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0070-7_3

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics