Abstract
The purpose of the research reported here is to aid in the understanding and prediction of criminal recidivism. The general research question may be stated quite simply: By considering the socio-environmental context into which an offender is released after a period of incarceration, can we improve upon recidivism predictions which are based solely on personal characteristics of the offender?
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For a review of human ecology, see Morris (1957) or Michelson (1970); for a review of delinquency research from an ecological perspective, see Baldwin (1975, 1979); for a critique, see Taylor (in press).
It is important to note, however, that this does not deny the possible co- occurrence of anomie and disorganization. Further, it is not clear whether anomie, socioeconomic status, or both, is most closely related to social dis- organization. Finally, Gordon’s conclusions are not supported by recent work based on self-report methods (Hindelang, Hirschi, & Weiss, 1981).
Detailed information concerning methods can be found in Gottfredson and Taylor (1982). Information on the environmental assessment methods can be found in Taylor, Shumaker and Gottfredson (in press).
Almost all of the Baltimore City population lives in 236 recognized neigh- borhoods. These were defined by Taylor, Brower and Drain (1979) in a manner which recognized the ecological integrity of these areas. Subsequent analysis (Taylor & Talalay, 1981) provided support for the ecological integrity of the neighborhoods as defined.
These included the incivilities scale, the land-use scale, and three socio demographic variables from the only census data availability at the time (proportion black population in 1980, 1970 average housing values, and 1970 average rental values).
We are indebted to Huey T. Chen for suggesting these analyses.
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Gottfredson, S.D., Taylor, R.B. (1986). Person-Environment Interactions in the Prediction of Recidivism. In: Byrne, J.M., Sampson, R.J. (eds) The Social Ecology of Crime. Research in Criminology. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8606-3_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8606-3_8
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