Manpower Planning Under Stochastic Turnover Behavior

  • Kivilcim Uyar
  • Ceyhan Kozanoğlu Uyar
Part of the NATO Conference Series book series (NATOCS, volume 7)


In the past decade, Markovian Analysis has been utilized for manpower planning purposes in a number of organizations. The main assumption in these models was the stability of the transition probabilities for turnover behavior. In real life this assumption is rarely met. In this paper a remedy for this problem is proposed. This remedy is the utilization of multiple transition matrices depending on the socio-economic changes in the work environment.


Planning Horizon Transition Matrice Small Bank Markovian Analysis Manpower Planning 
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  1. (1).
    J.W. Merck, A. Markovian Model for Projecting Movements of Personnel Through a System, Technical Report 65–6 (1965)Google Scholar
  2. H. Victor Vroom and Kenneth R. MacCrimmon, “Towards a Stochastic Model of Managerial Careers,” Administrative Science Quarterly, XIII (June, 1968), 24–46Google Scholar
  3. Mason Haire, “Approach to an Integrated Personnel Policy,” Industrial Relations, VII (February, 1968), 107–117Google Scholar
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  6. Uyar, Kivilcim M., “Markov-Chain Forecasts of Employee Replacement Needs,” Industrial Relations, Vol.11, No. 1, February 1972, pp.96–106.Google Scholar
  7. (2).
    Uyar, op.cit., pp. 96–106.Google Scholar
  8. (3).
    Common examples for this would be: Changes in national unemployment rate, supply and demand fluctuations, changes in management, etc.Google Scholar
  9. (4).
    The expected desired level of employment was not available for this analysis.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Plenum Press, New York 1978

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kivilcim Uyar
    • 1
  • Ceyhan Kozanoğlu Uyar
    • 2
  1. 1.School of Administrative SciencesBoğazisi UniversityBebek - IstanbulTurkey
  2. 2.School of EngineeringBoğazisi UniversityBebek - IstanbulTurkey

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