Abstract
The fundamental classification of approaches to forecasting has been the distinction between exploratory and normative directions of forecasting. According to Dr. H. W. Lanford, Associate Professor of Management at Wright State University, the exploratory direction of forecasting leads from the present situation along possible lines of development to future states. It is ‘the process of developing a forecast of future parameter performance based on a study of past parameter development and the present state-of-the-art.’
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Notes
H. W. Lanford, ‘A Penetration of the Technological Forecasting Jungle,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 4, 1972, p. 208.
Denis F. Johnston, ‘Forecasting Methods in the Social Sciences,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 4, 1972, p. 199.
Ibid.,p. 176.
Ibid.
Paul F. Wendt and Charles F. Floyd, Structuring the Georgia Transportation Planning Land Use Model, Research Report #1, Georgia Department of Transportation Planning Land Use Model, The University of Georgia, May, 1974, p. 1.
Figure 1–1.
Johnston, p. 180.
Charles Eastman, Norman J. Johnson, and Kenneth Kortanck, ‘A New Approach: To an Urban Information Process,’ Management Science, Volume 16, August, 1970, pp. B733 - B747.
Stuart A. Umpleby, ‘Is Greater Citizen Participation in Planning Possible and Desirable,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 4, 1972, p. 61.
Jerry B. Schneider, ‘The Policy Delphi: A Regional Planning Application,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 3, 1972, pp. 496–497.
Murry Turoff, ‘Delphi Conferencing: Computer-Based Conferencing with Anonymity,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 3, 1972, p. 183.
Osbin L. Ervin and Charles R. Meyers, Jr., ‘The Utilization of Local Opinion in Land Use Simulation Modeling: A Delphi Approach,’ Regional Environmental Systems Analysis Memo Report #73–8, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, February, 1973, p. 5.
Norman C. Dalkey, Delphi, p-3704, The RAND Corporation, October, 1967, p. 3.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Richard N. Farmer and Barry M. Richman, Comparative Management and Economic Progress, Richard D. Irwin, Inc., New York, 1965, p. 130.
Ervin and Meyers, p. 8.
Joseph S. Lechowicz, Group Counseling Instruction: A Model Based on Behavioral Objectives Developed Via the Delphi Technique, dissertation, The University of Georgia, 1973, p. 11.
Norman C. Dalkey, Daniel L. Rourke, Ralph Lewis, and David Snyder, Studies in the Quality of Life, Lexington Books, Lexington, Massachusetts, 1972, p. 20.
Osbin L. Ervin, ‘The Delphi Method: Some Applications to Local Planning,’ The Tennessee Planner, Volume 32, Nashville, Tennessee State Planning Office, 1974.
Bernice Brown, S. Cochran, and Norman C. Dalkey, The Delphi Method, IV: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of Relevant Facts,RM-6118-PR, The RAND Corporation, March, 1970.
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© 1976 H. E. Stenfert Kroese B.V., Leiden
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Davis, J.M. (1976). A Delphi approach to land use forecasting. In: Wendt, P.F. (eds) Forecasting transportation impacts upon land use. Studies in applied regional science, vol 2. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-4360-8_4
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