Abstract
Land use planners, transportation engineers, real estate developers, housing market analysts, appraisers, mortgage lenders, conservationists, real estate investors, and others are concerned with estimating future growth in urban and rural areas. The literature in each of these applied fields is voluminous and diverse in theory and technical sophistication.
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Notes
Richard M. Hurd, Principles of City Land Values, The Record and Guide, New York, 1903, pp. 15–16.
Paul F. Wendt, Real Estate Appraisal: Review and Outlook, University of Georgia Press, 1974.
Robert Murray Haig, Regional Survey of New York and Its Environs, Volume I. Major Economic Factors in Metropolitan Growth and Arrangement, Regional Plan Association, New York, 1927.
Homer Hoyt, The Structure and Growth of Residential Neighborhoods in American Cities, Federal Housing Administration, Washington, D.C., Government Printing Office, 1939, pp. 116–119.
Richard V. Ratcliff, Urban Land Economics, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1949, pp. 42–43.
The pioneering work of a group under the leadership of Edgar M. Hoover, Charles Leven, Benjamin Chinitz, and Ira S. Lowry at the Rand Corporation in 1964 led to the development of an analytical model for the Pittsburgh Regional Plan Association. That and other early models are described in Jobs, People and Land, Bay Area Stimulation Study, (BASS), Special Report No. 6, Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley, 1968, Chapter 1.
Franklin J. James and James W. Hughes, Economic Growth and Residential Patterns, A Methodological Investigation, Center for Urban Policy Research, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, May, 1972, p. 5.
For a recent review of six land use models, see H. James Brown, et al., Empirical Models of Urban Land Use: Suggestions on Research Objectives and Organization, Exploratory Report 6, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1972.
Stephen R. Rosenthal, Jack R. Meredith, and William Goldner, Plan Making With a Computer Model: Projective Land Use Model, Volume I, Institute of Transportation and Traffic Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, February, 1972 pp. 88–92. ORNL-NSF Environmental Program Regional Environmental Systems Analysis, Regional Modeling Abstracts, Volume II, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, June, 1973. See also, Gerald S. Goldstein and Leon N. Moses, ‘A Survey of Urban Economics,’ Economic Literature, June, 1973, Volume XI, No. 2, pp. 495–515.
Douglass B. Lee, Jr., ‘Requiem for Large-Scale Models,’ Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Volume 39, No. 3, May, 1973, pp. 163–178. See also, AIP Journal, November, 1973, and January, 1974, ‘Letters to the Editor’ for comments on the above article.
For a description and evaluation of this technique, see Charles F. Floyd and C. F. Sirmans, ‘Shift and Share Projections Revisited,’ Journal of Regional Science, Volume 13, No. 1, 1973, pp. 115–120;
L. D. Ashby, Growth Patterns in Employment by County, 1940–1960, Volumes 1–8 ( U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics), Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, 1965;
H. J. Brown, ‘Shift and Share Projections of Regional Economic Growth: An Empirical Test,’ Journal of Regional Science, Volume 9, 1969, pp. 1–18;
H. J. Brown, ‘The Stability of the Regional Share Component: Reply,’ Journal of Regional Science, Volume 11, 1971, pp. 113–114;
C. F. Floyd, The Changing Structure of Employment and Income in the Regions of the United States, Volumes 1–6, Washington, D.C., U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration, 1971;
C. C. Paraskevopoulos, ‘The Stability of the Regional Share Component: An Empirical Test,’ Journal of Regional Science, Volume 11, 1971, pp. 107–112.
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, OBERS Projections — Regional Economic Activity in the U.S., Washington, D.C.: U.S. Water Resources Council, 1972.
Osbin L. Ervin and Charles R. Meyers, Jr., The Utilization of Local Opinion in Land-Use Simulation Modeling: A Delphi Approach, Regional Environmental Systems Analysis, Memo Report #73–8, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, February, 1973.
Ibid., p. 57.
A citation to the principal published works in the field is found in the Notes and Selected Bibliography to Regional Environmental Systems Analysis, Memo Report #73–8.
Ibid., p. 10.
Environmental Protection Agency, Population By County, Historic (1940–1970) and Projected (1980–2020), Region IV, Atlanta, Georgia, July, 1972; Office of Planning and Budget, State of Georgia, County Population Projections: Georgia 1980, Atlanta, Georgia, Office of Planning and Budget, September, 1972.
W. J. Reilly, The Law of Retail Gravitation, Knickerbocker Press, New York, 1931.
Projective Land Use Model, Volume I, Plan Making With a Computer Model, Chapter 4. For the equations used in estimating the work-to-home probability used in the Plum Model, see Projective Land Use Model-Plum, Volume II—Theory and Application, pp. 80–81.
H. James Brown, et al., Op. Cit., pp. 22–23.
Donald M. Hill, ‘A Growth Allocation Model for the Boston Region,’ Journal of the American Institute of Planners, XXXI, May, 1965, pp. 111–120.
H. James Brown, et al., Empirical Models of Urban Land Use: Suggestions on Research Objectives and Organization, Op. Cit., Chapter 1.
Ibid., pp. 91–95.
Stephen H. Putman, ‘Further Results From and Prospects for Future Research With the Integrated Transportation and Land-Use Model Package,’ a paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Southern Regional Science Association, Atlanta, Georgia, April 4, 1975.
Ibid., p. 7.
The BASS model, for example, forecasts future land uses for six classes of residential use, as well as for manufacturing and wholesaling, service employment, commercial, public and recreational, and for agriculture, mining and construction. See Jobs, People and Land, Op. Cit., Appendix tables.
Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Report to Congress on Section 109(h), Title 23, United States Code — Guidelines Relating to the Economic, Social, and Environmental Effects of Highway Projects. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1972.
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© 1976 H. E. Stenfert Kroese B.V., Leiden
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Wendt, P.F. (1976). Introduction and overview. In: Wendt, P.F. (eds) Forecasting transportation impacts upon land use. Studies in applied regional science, vol 2. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-4360-8_1
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