Probabilistic Consequences of Imperfect NDE
This paper presents results of Monte Carlo simulation of the Retirement-for-Cause (RFC) engine maintenance system as developed by Pratt and Whitney Aircraft and the U. S. Air Force. The Retirement-for-Cause concept is addressed, conventional Monte Carlo modeling techniques are explained, and an alternative approach developed at Pratt and Whitney is presented. Next, a simplified non-ideal Non-Destructive-Evaluation (NDE) model with fixed probabilities of Type I and Type II errors is described and simulation results obtained using this model are presented and discussed. An appendix presents a survey of various methods used to model NDE.
KeywordsProbabilistic Consequence Crack Size Life Cycle Cost Disk Replacement Whitney Aircraft
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